Date: Wednesday, 31-Dec-2014 21:14:49
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UU9431 – “This Week’s Update” by Mnt Goat
Well its New Year’s Eve 2015 and who the heck would have thought we would still be here having these news letters without a revaluation already.
Today I wanted to give everyone a very brief news letter but after writing it I see it is not so brief. Sorry! Now I will get right to the point once again. I hope everyone also read my last news letters dated 12/26 (LINK) since this is a continuation of this ongoing saga of getting this 2015 budget bill passed thus showing us the way to the RV event.
The news coming from Iraq this week in not what I expected but it is solid and I know I can rely on it as to what is happening concerning the RV. Some say no one knows what is really going on. This is not entirely true.
Yes – Iraq and the USA do try to hide information from us since no one is supposed to know the date or rate of the revaluation. So hear is what I now know.
As we know Iraq sets targets for the accomplishment of certain laws and events. We see these targets come and go. Sometimes they are on target but mostly they have a warped sense of timing and usually more than often do not make their targets. Getting the budget for 2015 is another one of these times.
Let me explain to you what happened to the budget bill for 2015. They missed many of their past target dates, as we witnessed. However on Dec 22nd the house received the completed/adjusted budget finally from the cabinet of ministers. Then on December 25th they got it fully passed in the house.
Yes – I said it is completed, passed, done, done, done and I don’t care what any one else is telling you. There is only one small caveat to this remark and I will explain it later in this news letter. This is the key to understanding just what happened and why we have not yet seen the announcement of the RV. First let me explain to you a little more to help you understand that the budget is in fact done.
Two past articles came out explaining how much President Masoum and House Speaker Jabouri both supported a speedy passage of the budget bill and vowed to push it through once given to them by the cabinet of ministers, yet once they received it then only had one reading and then delayed it for another 2 weeks? Does not make any sense folks !
Does it seem funny to you that Jabouri would call an extra emergency session for Dec 25th during this period of time yet only do one reading on the budget and then delay the second reading yet another 2 weeks? Does not make any sense folks!
Why would Masoum ratify the budget bill last weekend if it was not passed in the house last Dec 25th? Of course this was not supposed to get out in the news media and I will tell you it was a slip up. It quickly got hushed up! Why? Does not make any sense folks!
I tell you something is smelling fishy to me as it usually does in case with Iraq when it does just not make any sense. So I snooped around to my CBI and USA contacts. Sometime it is hard talking to them since you have to have direct questions to them. You have to know what path to take and how to lead them in you quest for information. This is just how they think over there. This is what I found out.
All intentions were in fact for the CBI to announce the RV during the period of Dec 26 – 28th. I know this for a fact. Why did this not happen?
It did not happen because the USA simply stopped it and wanted more political security and the completion of non-sectarianism efforts in the country of Iraq. Kind of like putting the icing on the cake.
Iraq did previously agree to FULLY implement the Amnesty law but instead we see they just let out 800+ political prisoners over the last couple weeks. This looked good but not totally what the USA expected. They did not implement the law fully. They did not follow their agreement. So the USA put a hold on the RV until it is done. Why is this so important?
It is important because going into Christmas week it all looked very good for the RV until the USA learned that in fact they did not pass the Amnesty Law and fully implement it and only released prisoners. There is still also some work to be done on the legislation for Article 140 (talk about this later).
It is important too since when the Amnesty Law is fully implemented (as written now) there are other provisions within the law besides releasing prisoners. It will allow the international community with organizations like International Police (INTERPOL) and the International Criminal Courts (ICC) to take custody, hold trials, convict and punish ANY politician from Iraq responsible for the crimes against humanity committed over these last 8 years and for future crimes. Amnesty International also has put great pressure on the USA government to force Iraq to put these provisions into their Amnesty Law. These clauses were met with much resistance by Iraq. Why?
It is easy to see that those guilty parties would resist (Maliki goons) but what about the resistance from the current Abadi administration. Why would the current administration object? Surely they want to punish those involved on screwing up Iraq over the last 8 years. The current administration first of all does not want to air it’s dirty laundry and any international trials would surely make headline news. Also they want to punish the guilty on their own time and on their own soil. This is a fine line and took delicate political maneuvering.
So you see this is why it took so long to get the Amnesty Law updated in the first place. I have referred to this law as being necessary all along and talked about it many times in my news letters. Only I, like many, assumed it was all done and implementation was just a matter of timing. But again Iraq tries to do things their way and under mind what the USA really wants. The USA is standing firm on this one.
Next there is a matter of the oil dispute as seen in the Hydrogen Carbon Law (HCL) and Article 140. After all is this not the majority of the wealth within Iraq in the first place? Is this not why USA is really in Iraq?
By now everyone should know the importance of both of these laws. Let me first refresh you memory a bit.
The Iraq Oil Law, also referred to as the Iraq Hydrocarbon Law was legislation first submitted to the Iraqi Council of Representatives in May 2007. The legislation started when the U.S.-backed Iraqi cabinet approved a new oil law that was set to give foreign companies the long-term contracts and the safe legal framework they have been waiting for. The law rattled labor unions and international campaigners, who say oil production should remain in the hands of Iraqis. They remembered history well since they recalled what the US backed oil companies did in Iran in the 1950’s. History was doomed to repeat itself in Iraq, so they thought. You should read up on the past Iranian oil controversy since it is at the root of all negativity between the USA and Iran ever since.
The new law authorizes production share agreements (PSAs) which guarantees a profit for foreign oil companies. The central government distributes remaining oil revenues throughout the nation on a per capita basis. The draft law allows Iraq's provinces freedom from the central government in giving exploration and production contracts. Iraq's constitution allows governorates to form a semi-independent regions, fully controlling their own natural resources.
The GOI of the past Maliki administration wanted full control of these resources and the revenue generated. Having this kind of control meant more centralized power to the GOI, something Maliki especially saw important during his second term. He would use this power to control the Kurds since oil is their main source of revenue to support their economy and the Peshmerga army (sole means of defense against the army of the GOI). In short if Kurdistan was going to pump the oil it wanted autonomy in doing so and its share of the revenue, only as guaranteed by their constitution (17% revenue sharing).
So prominent Iraqi parliamentarians, politicians, ex-ministers and oil technocrats urged the Baghdad parliament to reject Iraq's controversial hydrocarbon law, fearing that the new legislation would further divide the country already witnessing civil strife. Discussions turned contentious among the more than 60 Iraqi oil officials reviewing Iraq's draft hydrocarbons bill in the United Arab Emirates. But the dispute highlighted the need for further negotiations on the proposed law that was stalled in talks for nearly a year, then pushed through Iraq's Cabinet without most key provisions. The GW Bush administration was concerned that recent security gains of post 2003 in Iraq may be undermined by continuing political gridlock, and started pushing the Iraqi government to complete long-delayed reform legislation.
The Disputed territories of Northern Iraq, or Disputed internal Kurdish-Iraqi boundaries, are regions defined by the article 140 of the Constitution of Iraq as being Arabised during the Baath Party rule in Iraq. Most of these regions had previously been inhabited by non-Arab minorities, most notably Kurds, and were later arabised by transferring and settling Arab tribes in those areas.
The disputed areas have been a core concern for Arabs and Kurds, especially since the US invasion and political restructuring in 2003. Kurds gained territory to the south of Iraqi Kurdistan after the US-led invasion in 2003 to regain what land they considered historically theirs. Currently, in addition to the four governorates of Iraqi Kurdistan, Kurds control parts of Nineveh Province, Kirkuk Governorate, Salah ad Din Governorate and Diyala Governorate, which are also claimed by the Iraqi government; on the other hand, Iraqi government controls parts of those four provinces, some parts of which are also claimed by the Kurds. However in 2014, during the 2014 Iraq Crisis, Iraqi Kurdistan's forces also took over much of the disputed territories.
For the Kurds and the Arabs these disputed lands are much more than about the oil. It is also about people and their homes and who will rule them. What the population is and which providence will get the demographics on their census. Census is important for voting. Control is important for oil resources. Its all interconnected.
So why did I go into such an explanation of these two important areas? I did this today because what I found out is that the USA is demanding that Erbil be completed and implemented prior to revaluation release. The budget can not be completed without these issues being addressed and completed. Although HCL has been agreed upon Article 140 has not. There must be an implementation of a law now through the legislation to support the Article 140 of the Iraqi constitution.
If you read the recent released budget law of 2015 you will see that there is a place holder under section 38 of the law. Did it seem funny to you that section 38 is missing from the law? I am told this is for dealing with these two important concerns that of the HCL and Article 140. What does this tell us?
It tells us that there is still work to be done in this area of dealing with the oil reserves and revenue sharing as the budget is concerned and in fact the budget is not entirely complete as many thought. So how can the budget then be passed and done? It can be passed and done since these items do not require budget legislation being voted on in the house. These laws can become legal simply buy the three presidents (prime minister, speaker of the house and president of Iraq) sitting down and signing them into law. Then they will update the budget to coincide.
So when will this take place? This is in the basket of laws we are waiting for. Amnesty is also included. It is also needed. It is also a hold up. This is why we wait. This is why Iraq has notified the world they will not be ready until on or around Jan 7th to implement their new budget. This is of course just another target. Will it be met?
They are telling us once implemented the 2015 budget is will be retroactive to Jan 1st. This is their way once again and skirting around their own target dates yet making peace with the citizens. They are noted for this and we all should be use to their tactics by now.
Remember how they used this same kind of political tactics too in getting Abadi confirmed. They simple allowed the voting in parliament to meet their 30 day deadline knowing darn well that some of the candidates for ministries would be rejected. It got Abadi confirmed as the new prime minister (so he could get to work and eliminate any opposition denouncing his legitimacy) then came back later and told us four of the ministers were not ratified. We then witnessed a month of disputes over these ministers and finally a resolution. Meanwhile they moved forward and the work began. This was to me ingenious and well done Abadi ! It showed real leadership and the ability to manage in the midst of crisis instead of the constant stalemate we witnessed under Maliki.
So once again now with the 2015 budget we see some of the same tactics. They are constantly moving forward. It may not seem that way to us since we expect them to meet all their announce targets. When we don’t we think they are stalemate but actually they are just stalling for time. But you have to learn to see what is really going on behind the scenes. I am trying to show you from my research and then explain it to you in the simplest terms I can.
Rule for Iraq - Does Iraq ever do anything on time? ……lol….
As I have said previously I thought this entire budget bill process was put in warp drive and I was correct. There is really not too much for Parliament to do with the budget bill anymore as it is now on hold until other matters are done. In reality they moved so quickly with the budget the other pieces now have to catch up before they can implement it.
This story I told you today is how they were able to push it through the house so quickly. The hold up now is still in the section 38 items dealing with the oil. Other laws too are a concern and the USA is demanding these get implemented prior to any RV of currency.
Then when can we expect the RV?
There is only 1 day remaining till Jan 1st 2015 and on this eve of the new year many of us sit here in wonder. You should not be disappointed and be confident instead. All is still very good and I am happy to finally get the truth.
From what I just learned this will not go on until at least Jan 7th 2015. All indications are now we are on track to see the CBI announce the RV for Iraq on or around this new timeframe. I am sorry and I did not want to spoil your new year celebrations but this what I have heard and know to be accurate at this time. I hope I explained it well enough for you to understand.
Will the USA stop it once Iraq announces it? I do not see them doing this as long as all the needed laws are put into place as agreed would happen prior.
Peace and Luv To Ya All,
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