The central bank/state
plan for 2015 is a continuation of the same plan that’s been in play
since 2009: drive everyone with any cash or capital into ruinously risky
bets. The problem for the central bankers/states driving everyone
into risk assets is the yields on these bets are entering the exhaustion
zone of marginal returns.
In other words, what worked wonderfully for years no longer works at all.
Another way of saying the
same thing is apparent stability gives way to instability and apparent
predictability gives way to unpredictability. The hubris described yesterday (2015: A World Ruled by Hubris, Willful Blindness and Desperation)
arises from the overweening confidence of central bankers that this
same tired gambit of pushing assets higher by pushing capital and
speculative money into risk assets can be played successfully with no
limits.
But there are limits. A short list of limits might include:
1. Marginal
borrowers/buyers: the game now is to lower interest rates and mortgages
rates so ever-more marginal auto and house buyers can qualify for
ever-less prudent loans.
This works until it doesn’t, as marginal borrowers/buyers are last on, first off: they
default at the first lay-off, medical emergency, etc. Defaults tend to
pyramid in recessions as lay-offs and financial stress spreads quickly
through those living paycheck to paycheck.
2. The Greater Fool: All Ponzi schemes rely on an ever-expanding pool of greater fools who buy into the scheme and reward the previous (much smaller) cohort of greater fools. Ponzi schemes fail because the pool of greater fools is finite, but the scheme demands an ever-expanding pool of participants to function.
All Ponzi schemes eventually fail, though each is declared financially sound because this time it’s different (though it never is). The number of greater fools required to keep the scheme going eventually exceeds the population of marginal borrowers/buyers who have yet to buy in.
At that point, the asset bubble collapses, not from any specific cause, but from the draining of the pool of greater fools: with nobody left to buy, sellers find the market is suddenly bidless–that is, there are no buyers at any price.
3. Highly leveraged
speculators have their fingers on the sell button. The name of the game
for central bankers for six years has been liquidity: make credit cheap and abundant, especially to hot-money financiers and speculators.
Borrowing immense sums to
speculate in expanding asset bubbles is highly profitable as long as the
bubble continues expanding. But when the pool of greater fools has been
drained and the bubble starts deflating, leveraged bets generate
outsized losses. As a result, leveraged speculators must sell first and
ask questions later.
Selling begets selling, as other speculators who hesitated must sell before their own losses become ruinous.
4. Everyone’s all-in: greater fools may
be willing to buy more risk assets, but eventually they reach the limit
of their ability to borrow/buy. At that point, their borrowing/buying
ceases.
Then the leveraging up reverses into deleveraging, and the highly leveraged greater fools have to sell to meet margin calls.
All asset bubbles are Ponzi Schemes; so are social welfare programs and unfunded liabilities such as Medicare:
In a zero-yield world of rising rents, everyone is forced into risky stock market and housing bubbles. Central
banks have lowered the yield on savings to near-zero, forcing capital
to seek returns in risk assets such as stocks, junk bonds and real
estate.
As rents rise, the financial
logic of buying a house with a low-interest mortgage becomes
undeniable: when it costs less per month to buy a house than to rent the
same dwelling, why not buy?
This demand pushes the
asset class ever higher, generating a self-reinforcing feedback loop
that rewards buyers at every stage except the last: when the bubble finally pops, the last cohort of greater fools is destroyed financially, and the previous sets of greater fools are crippled as assets go bidless or lose much of the value.
During this expansion
phase, every borrower/buyer is a financial genius, and every central
bank that drove everyone into ruinously risky assets is omnipotent and
god-like. But when the limits that are intrinsic to Ponzi Schemes
are reached and the asset bubbles deflate violently and unpredictably,
the geniuses face financial ruin and the central bankers are revealed as
scammers, liars and hubris-soaked fools.
Meanwhile, those who
resisted the siren song of central bankers to risk their capital and
incomes in asset bubbles are derided as Bears who have missed out on the
Greatest Bull Market of All Time. When the wheels fall off, all the
smart guys naturally claim to have exited at the top. But it is
impossible for everyone to sell at the top; the assets are owned by
someone all the way down.
All those owners will lose, and continue losing, until the asset is repossessed, sold or surrendered.
The Fed’s zero-interest rate
policy (ZIRP) has made safe assets–cash and savings–into trash; savings
earn less than inflation, meaning that holding safe assets is a losing
proposition.
The more capital that is driven into risk assets, the greater the financial devastation when the asset bubbles all pop, which they inevitably will–and not in some distant future.
Go to my main site at www.oftwominds.com/blog.html
for the full posts and archives.
Source:
http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2015/01/2015-now-that-fed-drove-everyone-into.html
