Subject: Dinar: MOUNTAIN GOAT POST
(Thank you George for sending this to Dinar Recaps Monday morning.)
UU0430 - “A New Timeline”
I come to you today to give you a recent update on the election process and how this relates towards the international rollout of the IQD for Iraq.
Note: If you have not read my previous news letter from Wednesday 8/27, I encourage you to first read it (LINK). Today's news letter, as in all my news letters, is a continuation of the ongoing saga of the IQD RV process.
We were expected last week to witness the announcement of the new Iraqi cabinet headed by Haidar al-Abadi. Today is Sunday 08/31 the last day of September and still no formal announcement of the fully formed and seated government of Iraq. Why?
As I have said in previous news letters it is a struggle to get the government completed. I have tried over the last couple weeks to show you the news as to what was delaying the announcement and formation of their government. The recent news tells you they are down to the final phases of assembling this government.
I will now briefly give you a quick summary of last weeks events then bring you to the current and proposed upcoming events for this week.
They have alrady targeted three previous dates to announce the fully formed government but as they got closer to the date they realize it was not going to happen and so moved to a new date. This has happened again and again.
Abadi came out late last week stating that 9/4 is his new target and probably could seat the government by that timeframe. The million dollar question is - will he? According to the constitution he technically has until 9/9.
Some are saying that of Abadi does not seat the government by the constitutional deadline that Maliki will simply take over the process and complete it. He will then simply appoint himself the new prime minister.
Do you see just how ridiculous this news was. Once again we see the seeds of pro-Maliki rearing its ugly head. Simply idiotic and complete garbage ! Please, please simply ignore this kind of news. It makes absolutely no sense at all. I do not even know why people bring this stuff over to the forums. Why What is the point? Do you also believe deep down such nonsense could possibly be real?
If they must go beyond the deadline, parliament will simply vote on a referendum allowing them to do so with a new timeline. It will be for a very good reason. However I will also add they are moving at lightening speed and are very much aware of the necessity to complete this new government and get it announced ASAP.
So we saw in the Iraq news that about mid last week Abadi put together a round table to bring in all the players from the blocs. He especially wanted the National Alliance and the State of Law coalition in the discussions. There are just a few minister positions not yet filled and the vie president and deputy vice president. The alliance of the Iraqi powers holds the National Alliance responsibility for the collapse of the round table negotiations for preventing granting the rights of the Sunni component.
We saw how the State of Law boycotted any discussions and refused to give their list of candidates to Abadi after the bombing of the mosque. They required the government to bring the perpetrators to justice. Abadi then held an investigation and four were arrested. Then on Thursday the candidates were finally released to Abadi. The deadlock was over and Abadi made the announcement he could then probably seat the new government by 9/4.
My news today is direct from my sources in Iraq as of Sunday 8/31. It is all good news and they are moving ahead.
They pointed out that all political blocs are now participating in the negotiations to form a government, disputed broke out last week to nominate four ministers and they finally agree on granting the National Alliance Shiite ministries of defense, foreign affairs, finance, and the Union of Iraqi national forces Sunni Interior Ministry.
What is left is a single undecided ministry, Ministry of Oil, in which may go to the Kurdistan Alliance. Negotiations are still in progress as I write this news letter. This will probably be resolved by early this week.
It has not been definitely decided yet who the vice president and deputy vice president are going to be. But this too will be resolved shortly and does not seem to be a huge obstacle since these positions are just more of a formality after the elections are done.
There are also two of the formerly selected ministers that are being contested by a representative from Najaf and wants them replaced. The minister of health and the minister of utilities. The President of Parliament is giving them two more days to be replaced and this should be done by Tuesday at the latest.
Last week they swore in all ministers already chosen and began to officially seat them. Does this make a complete government ? No- this just means that about 12 of the ministers were officially seated and their names listed in the gazette making it official. As usual this was all hyped up and misunderstood. This was not the announcement of the fully formed government we have been waiting for. This week there will be yet others. They plan to swear in the last 5 ministers and seated seat them and hopefully they can do all this by 9/4 or 9/9 (at the latest), when they are targeting the “formal announcement”.
Believe me when they announce the government it will be all over the international news media channels such as CNN and FOX news. Don’t you get sick and tired of the hype? Why is all this news from Iraq so misinterpreted all the time by the same intel groups?
Decentralization of Gov’t (con’t)
Essentially the decentralization effort, as I have explained in past news letters, is giving more power to the provinces and a check on the Federal government.
If you have been reading my news letters all along you must remember the news I have been including about the desire and necessity by the new government to support more autonomy by each of the six main provinces. This is being modeled off of the State/Federal system in American as it will be the Federation of Iraq.
This week we heard the final count of ministries was down to 17 from 31. They combined the duties of some and eliminated others that were redundant. Remember also some ministers were on the payroll but essentially had very little responsibilities. Others that were redundant and had conflicting responsibilities with other ministries. It was always questionable who was actually in charge. Maliki liked to keep you guessing and chaos was the rule of law. This way he could have control over everything yet have no responsibility for the corruption that was ramped. At least this is how he planned it. A side effect was nothing ever got done.
This past week Dr Allawi was officially appointed to head up the “Federation Council”, hurry, hurry, hurry ! I could not think of a better person for this job. Congrats to Allawi! .
This is the current line up for this coming week (targeted events):
The parliament Speaker, Saleem al-Jobouri, while meeting the official in Babel Province stated that there are no obstacles to hinder the formation of the next government within the constitutional time limit.
I personally do not think it will go until 9/9.
This is how I am hearing they plan to roll out the new government.
September 3, the remaining ministers will be sworn in.
September 4, the official list of ministers will be released to the media and the people. They will announce that the government is “officially” completed. They will also announce the new Federation Council and its head Dr Allawi. They will have a photo opp for the press of the council of ministers along with the prime minister Abadi, his deputies, the president , the vice president and deputy vice president (the presidents council).
The ministers will officially start their jobs September 9 as Jubouri has stated the next official session of parliament is planned to begin on 9/9.
We all know there have been promised and concessions made to all parties and political blocs. The trust factor is very low that this new government will not do the same as the Maliki government. There is a stack of bills needing to be passed and implemented such as HCL and Article 140. Parliament will not waist any time.
On September 9 a bucket of laws is supposed to be brought before Parliament. Following these laws will be the budget law. Many of these laws are to denounce and vote on the repeal of many of the special “Maliki government” laws implemented over the last 8 years. These laws mostly circumvented the constitution and are of no use.
Many of the new laws are needed and are laws to support the effort of decentralization and to give more powers to the provinces.
So today’s news is still good news and we target now Thursday, Sept 4th for a possible announcement. Can they complete the government by then?
We have seen in the news today the reasons for the hold up and the delays.
It is not a mystery or a conspiracy of holding back the formal announcement from the world as to why it has not yet been made.
In the mosque last Friday they announced the ministers so far, telling the people there is progress. The ministers sworn in so far were published in the gazette but not the full set of ministers to make up a complete council of ministers. This has lead to much confusion among news gathers since they do not understand Arabic and often confuse what they are hearing and seeing. I do not know why but they fail to get the big picture over and over again.
THE GOVERNMENT IS SIMPLY NOT YET COMPLETED !
Then when can we expect the RV?
All I will say is what I have been saying all along we wait for a formal (global) announcement to the public that the Iraq government is now fully formed. Many of you asked me if a formal, public announcement is necessary and the answer is a big fat YES