If History Is Any Indication, Junk Bonds And Copper Are Telling Us Exactly Where Stocks Are Heading Next

If History Is Any Indication, Junk Bonds And Copper Are Telling Us Exactly Where Stocks Are Heading Next

Corporations have issued a stunning $9.3 trillion in bonds since the beginning of 2009

by Michael Snyder | Economic Collapse | August 19, 2015 

Yields on the riskiest junk bonds are absolutely soaring and the price of copper just hit a fresh six year low.
To most people, those pieces of financial news are meaningless.  But if you understand history, and you are aware of the patterns that immediately preceded previous stock market crashes, then you know how how huge both of those signs are.  During the summer of 2008, junk bond prices absolutely cratered as junk bond yields skyrocketed.  This was a very clear signal that financial markets were about to crash, and sure enough a couple of months later it happened.  Now the exact same thing is happening again.  The following comes from a Wall Street On Parade article that was posted on Tuesday entitled “Keep Your Eye on Junk Bonds: They’re Starting to Behave Like ‘08“…

According to data from Bloomberg, corporations have issued a stunning $9.3 trillion in bonds since the beginning of 2009. The major beneficiary of this debt binge has been the stock market rather than investment in modernizing the plant, equipment or new hires to make the company more competitive for the future. Bond proceeds frequently ended up buying back shares or boosting dividends, thus elevating the stock market on the back of heavier debt levels on corporate balance sheets.
Now, with commodity prices resuming their plunge and currency wars spreading, concerns of financial contagion are back in the markets and spreads on corporate bonds versus safer, more liquid instruments like U.S. Treasury notes, are widening in a fashion similar to the warning signs heading into the 2008 crash. The $2.2 trillion junk bond market (high-yield) as well as the investment grade market have seen spreads widen as outflows from Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and bond funds pick up steam.

And right now we are seeing the most volatility in the junkiest of the junk bonds.
The following comes from Wolf Richter, and my jaw just about dropped to the floor when I first saw this…

This chart of yields at the riskiest end of the junk bond market – bonds rated CCC and below – shows what happened. These bonds have been selling off over the past 12 months, with exception of the sucker rally earlier this year, and their yieldsmore than doubled from less than 7.9% in June a year ago to 16.2% by Thursday evening. And Thursday was a massacre:

On Thursday, yields jumped 2.6 percentage points, from 13.58% to 16.18%, as these junk bonds plunged. Those kinds of single-day vertigo-inducing sell-offs are rare in normal times, and there haven’t been any since the Financial Crisis.

Amazingly, the Federal Reserve is actually thinking about raising interest rates in this environment.
If that sounds like a really bad idea to you, that is because it is a really bad idea.
Raising interest rates would just add fuel to the fire of this junk bond rout.  DoubleLine Capital’s co-founder Jeffrey Gundlach agrees with me…

“To raise interest rates when junk bonds are nearly at a four-year low is a bad idea,” Gundlach said in a telephone interview.
Gundlach, widely followed for his prescient investment calls, said if the Fed begins raising interest rates in September, “it opens the lid on Pandora’s Box of a tightening cycle.”
Gundlach said the selling pressure in copper and commodity prices driven by worries over China’s growth outlook “should be a huge concern. It is the second-biggest economy in the world.”

Meanwhile, as Gundlach mentioned, the price of copper continues to plunge.
On Tuesday, it set a brand new six year low.  It is now the lowest that it has been since the days of the last financial crisis.
And as you can see from this excerpt from a recent Investment Research Dynamics article, the price of copper started crashing before the stock market crash of 2008…

I wanted to keep this simple and just look at what is considered perhaps the best barometer of global economic activity:

You’ll note that the price of copper is headed lower and is back to the price level where it was in the middle of 2008, right before the great financial collapse.  You’ll note that $3.6 trillion in Federal Reserve money printing – on top of trillions in Bank of Japan, ECB and People’s Bank of China money printing – has not been able to keep the price of copper from crashing again.

In case you haven’t figured it out by now, the global financial system is in realtrouble.
Another sign that rough waters are ahead is the fact that global shipping has fallen into a dramatic slump.  The following comes from the Telegraph…

World shipping has fallen into a deep slump over the late summer, dashing hopes of a quick recovery from the global trade recession earlier this year and heightening fears that the six-year economic expansion may be on its last legs.
Freight rates for container shipping from Asia to Europe fell by over 20pc in the second week of August, even though trade volumes should be picking up at this time of the year. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) for routes to north European ports crashed by 23pc in five trading days.

Global economic activity is clearly slowing down, and there are 23 nations around the planet that are already experiencing stock market crashes.
The financial markets of the western world have not totally crashed just yet, but they are more leveraged and more vulnerable than ever.  The following comes fromZero Hedge…

• The REAL problem for the financial system is the bond bubble. In 2008 when the crisis hit it was $80 trillion. It has since grown to over $100 trillion.
• The derivatives market that uses this bond bubble as collateral is over $555 trillion in size.
• Many of the large multinational corporations, sovereign governments, and even municipalities have used derivatives to fake earnings and hide debt. NO ONE knows to what degree this has been the case, but given that 20% of corporate CFOs have admitted to faking earnings in the past, it’s likely a significant amount.
• Corporations today are more leveraged than they were in 2007. As Stanley Druckenmiller noted recently, in 2007 corporate bonds were $3.5 trillion… today they are $7 trillion: an amount equal to nearly 50% of US GDP.
• The Central Banks are now all leveraged at levels greater than or equal to where Lehman Brothers was when it imploded. The Fed is leveraged at 78 to 1. The ECB is leveraged at over 26 to 1. Lehman Brothers was leveraged at 30 to 1.
• The Central Banks have no idea how to exit their strategies. Fed minutes released from 2009 show Janet Yellen was worried about how to exit when the Fed’s balance sheet was $1.3 trillion (back in 2009). Today it’s over $4.5 trillion.

As I explained during a recent interview with Kate Dalley of Fox News radio, what is coming should be obvious to anyone that is willing to look at the numbers honestly.
The global financial system is going to crash.
Yes, this crisis is going to take years to fully play out, but by the time it is all said and done it is going to be much worse than what we experienced back in 2008 and 2009.
So buckle up tight and hold on for your life, because we are in for one wild ride.

http://www.infowars.com/if-history-is-any-indication-junk-bonds-and-copper-are-telling-us-exactly-where-stocks-are-heading-next/

'Beyond Unacceptable': Judge OKs Uranium Mine at Grand Canyon

'Beyond Unacceptable': Judge OKs Uranium Mine at Grand Canyon

Slamming ruling, conservationists warn of irreversible contamination of the canyon's underground aquifers.

  By Reynard Loki / AlterNet

August 12, 2015

Photo Credit: Martin M303/Shutterstock.com

In June, the Grand Canyon was named one of the "Most Endangered Places" in America by the National Trust for Historic Preservation. But the designation came just two months too late to possibly influence U.S. District Court Judge David Campbell. In April, he denied a request by the Havasupai tribe and a coalition of conservation groups to halt new uranium mining next to Grand Canyon National Park, just six miles from the Grand Canyon's South Rim.

"We are very disappointed with the ruling by Judge Campbell in the Canyon Mine case," said Havasupai Chairman Rex Tilousi. "We believe that the National Historic Preservation Act requires the Forest Service to consult with us and the other affiliated tribes before they let the mining company damage Red Butte, one of our most sacred traditional cultural properties." He said that the Havasupai Tribal Council would appeal the decision.

Cleaning Up Contamination? Next to Impossible
The Havasupai tribe had joined a coalition of conservation groups, including the Grand Canyon Trust, the Center for Biological Diversity and the Sierra Club, to challenge a decision by the U.S. Forest Service to permit Energy Fuels Inc. (TSX:EFR), a Canadian mining firm that develops uranium and vanadium properties in the U.S., to reopen the mine without formally consulting with tribal authorities or updating an obsolete federal environmental review that is nearly 30 years old. The coalition warns that the mining operation threatens wildlife, including endangered species such as the California condor, as well as tribal cultural values. Toxic uranium mining waste, they say, can contaminate the aquifers and streams that maintain the Grand Canyon and Colorado River. Geologists have warned that cleaning up such contamination would be "next to impossible." The aquifers that feed the Grand Canyon are located thousands of feet below the surface.
Steve Martin, former superintendent of the Grand Canyon National Park, said, “Uranium is a special concern because it is both a toxic heavy metal and a source of radiation. I worry about uranium escaping into the local water because more than a third of the canyon’s species would be affected if water quality suffered.”
According to a 2011 Environment America report "Grand Canyon at Risk: Uranium Mining Doesn’t Belong Near Our National Treasures":

Uranium mining — which often requires vast open pits, spreads radioactive dust through the air, and leaks radioactivity and toxic chemicals into the environment — is among the riskiest industrial activities in the world. Every uranium mine ever operated in the United States has required some degree of toxic waste cleanup, and the worst have sickened dozens of people, contaminated miles of rivers and streams, and required the cleanup of hundreds of acres of land. After several decades of reduced activity due to depressed prices, uranium mining is making a comeback — including on the edges of one of our nation’s most treasured wild places, the Grand Canyon. Uranium mining has left a toxic trail across the West — including at the Grand Canyon itself. To protect this national treasure, and the millions of people who visit it each year, mining should be prohibited on land near Grand Canyon National Park, and other treasured places. Uranium mining is risky for miners, local residents and the environment. Mines can release uranium itself — a dangerous radioactive substance — or toxic chemicals used in the mining process.

"This is bad news for protecting Grand Canyon and tribal sacred sites," said Roger Clark of the Grand Canyon Trust, a nonprofit group dedicated to Grand Canyon and Colorado Plateau conservation and environmental advocacy. "Over the last two decades, we’ve learned how uranium mining can pollute aquifers that feed canyon springs and Havasu Falls. But the Forest Service has ignored that information and failed to require Energy Fuels to take reasonable steps to prevent contamination of water, sacred sites and public lands."

U.S. Government vs. First Nations
The plaintiffs in the suit argued that the Forest Service violated the National Historic Preservation Act by failing to consult with tribes regarding potential negative impacts of the Canyon Mine on Red Butte. In addition, the conservation groups attest that the decision endangers the “Red Butte Traditional Cultural Property,” which the Forest Service designated in 2010 for its religious and cultural importance to several tribes — in particular the Havasupai, an indigenous American tribe that has called the Grand Canyon home for some 800 years.
Uranium mining is a unique part of a long and troubled history between the U.S. government and America's indigenous tribes. "The historic legacy of radioactive contamination for Native peoples and lands relates to the longstanding U.S. policy to treat uranium production as a 'public good' intended to serve the country’s interest in national security," writes Arizona State University law professor Rebecca Tsoisie in her recent paper, "Indigenous Peoples and the Ethics of Remediation," published in the Santa Clara Journal of International Law. That policy, says Tsoisie, "affected many reservations and adjacent lands, which resulted in contamination of land, water, and natural resources, including fish." She notes that over four decades, starting in the 1940s, mining firms extracted some 4 million tons of ore from the Navajo Nation reservation alone. "By the 1970s," she writes, "the radioactive tailings from the uranium mines had contaminated air, groundwater, streams, and soil on the Navajo reservation."
In 2012, then-Interior Secretary Ken Salazar issued a 20-year ban that prohibits new mining claims and mine development on existing claims without valid permits, protecting some 1 million acres around the Grand Canyon — an area that continues to be plagued by decommissioned uranium mines. "We are still recovering from the last uranium rush which poisoned so much water it’ll take generations to clean up,” said Clark. But Energy Fuels and its allies argue that since the Canyon Mining plan was first approved by the Forest Service in 1986, the 2012 ban should not apply.

 

Mining issues in national parks (by Melissa Mallin)

 

Calling on President Obama: It's Not Too Late
“We will continue to fight to protect Grand Canyon, its waters and its watershed,” said Sandy Bahr, director of Sierra Club's Grand Canyon Chapter. “The Forest Service should consider the harm this mine could cause to the groundwater and ultimately the waters in Grand Canyon National Park. We are extremely disappointed in the judge's failure to recognize that.”
Margie Alt, the executive director of Environment America, offered harsh criticism of Judge Campbell's ruling, saying in an email that "letting mining operations set up shop next to the Grand Canyon...just doesn't make sense." In a separate email, she characterized the decision as "beyond unacceptable."
However, Alt also noted that it is not too late to stop it. President Obama can proclaim the Grand Canyon's watershed a national monument, through the authority granted the president by the Antiquities Act, which was enacted by President Theodore Roosevelt. Congress can also establish a national monument though legislation, but that would surely be a lengthy and contentious process.
"With the stroke of a pen, the president of the United States can protect natural, historical and cultural wonders by designating them as national monuments," notes the Wilderness Society. "National monument designation is a form of protection most like a National Conservation Area (NCA). National monuments are flexible designations that allow for a true conservation balance between development and the need to protect our most treasured places for our children and grandchildren."
Environment America has launched a petition urging President Obama to protect the Grand Canyon and its watershed from uranium mining by creating a new national monument — the Grand Canyon Watershed National Monument in Arizona.
This uranium project could haunt the Grand Canyon region for decades to come,” said Katie Davis with the Center for Biological Diversity. "Uranium mining leaves a highly toxic legacy that endangers human health, wildlife and the streams and aquifers that feed the Grand Canyon. It’s disappointing to see the Forest Service prioritizing the extraction industry over the long-term protection of a place as iconic as the Grand Canyon.”
TAKE ACTION: Tell President Obama to protect the Grand Canyon from mining and share the message on Facebook.

http://www.alternet.org/environment/beyond-unacceptable-judge-oks-uranium-mine-grand-canyon?sc=fb

Google's terrifying humanoid robot

Watch Google's terrifying humanoid robot running through a forest as firm pledges it will soon be MORE agile than a human

• 6.2 foot Atlas robot shown moving through forest without falling
• Also shown running across rocks in a lab
• Comes after several of robots fell during recent 'robo olympics'

By Mark Prigg For Dailymail.com

Published: 13:13 EST, 17 August 2015 | Updated: 17:55 EST, 17 August 2015

It may have fared badly in the recent robo-olympics, causing hilarity with a series of unexpected falls, but Google has revealed its humanoid robot has been set free in the woods to learn how to run free.

The Atlas robot created by Google-owned firm Boston Dynamics is a formidable figure at 6ft 2in tall and weighing in at 330lb.

In the video, it is shown struggling to stay upright - but managing to traverse a forest path without falling.

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It may have fared badly in the recent robo-olympics, but Google has revealed its humanoid robot has been set free in the woods to learn how to run through terrain.

GOOGLE'S ATLAS ROBOT

According to Google owned Boston Dynamics, Atlas is a 'high mobility, humanoid robot designed to negotiate outdoor, rough terrain. 

'Atlas can walk bipedally leaving the upper limbs free to lift, carry, and manipulate the environment. 

'In extremely challenging terrain, Atlas is strong and coordinated enough to climb using hands and feet, to pick its way through congested spaces.' 

Marc Raibert, the founder of Boston Dynamics, talked about the research and showed footage of the project during a talk on Aug. 3 at the 11th Fab Lab Conference and Symposium in Cambridge, Mass.

Several of the competitors on the DRC contest used the Atlas robot as a base, with teams adding their own software. 

However, Boston Dynamics says its own software has taken some major steps forward since.

'We've been working on humanoid robots, derived from these models. 

It has been studying the way humans and animals move in a bid to replicate, and even improve on it. 

'Our focus is on balance and dynamics, working in the way animals and people do, moving quickly to avoid falling.'

Raibert revealed the forest tests had gone well. 

'We're interested in getting this robot out in the world, its a totally different, you can't predict what its going to be like

'All kinds of stuff happens, and we're making pretty good progress in making it's movement sort of within shooting range of yours, and if we keep pushing we'll get there.'

The Atlas robot tested outside by Boston Dynamics

 

 

Google revealed some of the technologies it hoped to developed, such as human like legs with bone-like makeup and fluid routed internally like a human leg.

The firm has also been using weights and even boxing gloves to test the robot's abilities.

Researchers have been using a boxing glove on a long pole to try and push the 6.2 foot humanoid over in a test of its balance systems.

The video reveals the robot navigating hilly terrain in a forest.

To avoid falling, it move quickly - in the same way we would.

The tests were carried out by researchers at the Florida Institute for Human and Machine Interaction developed the software for the robot.

'Video demonstrating experimental push recovery and fall avoidance techniques on the Boston Dynamics Atlas Humanoid Robot at IHMC.' they entitled the clip.

'Still some work to be done :)'

The firm even said it hopes its robot will one day be more agile than humans.

In the lab, the robot is put through its paces walking and running over rocks,

Watch Robots stumble, collapse and fall at the Robot Olympics

 

The Atlas robot created by Google-owned firm Boston Dynamics is a formidable figure at 6ft 2in tall and weighing in at 330lb.

The robot boasts 28 hydraulically actuated joints and stereo vision, and is one of the most advanced robots ever created.

Atlas will also now carry an onboard 3.7-kilowatt-hour lithium-ion battery pack, with the potential for one hour of 'mixed mission' operation that includes walking, standing, use of tools, and other movements. 

The Boston Dynamics Atlas Humanoid Robot gets punched!

 

The Florida team is one of several using it, and has previously programmed it to recreate a scene from the Karate Kid movie, crouching on one leg. 

'To achieve this level of maneuverability in robots, researchers at IHMC look toward nature,' the team say.

'Inspired by the speed of cheetahs, the endurance of horses, the maneuverability of monkeys, and the versatility of humans, IHMC researchers are on a quest to develop legged robots that are fast, efficient, and graceful, with the mobility required to access many of the same places that humans can.'

Seven of the Atlas robots competed in a 'robo Olympics' - designed to recreate natural disasters the robots could one day be sent into. 

A total of $3.5 million in prizes will now be awarded to the top three finishers in the DARPA Robotics Challenge (DRC), the final event of which will be held June 5-6, 2015, at Fairplex in California.

Aside from the previously announced $2 million grand prize, DARPA plans to award $1 million to the runner-up and $500,000 to the third-place team. 

DARPA expects at least twenty teams to compete in the DRC Finals. 

'The goal of the DRC is to generate groundbreaking research and development in hardware and software that will enable future robots, in tandem with human counterparts, to perform the most hazardous activities in disaster zones, thus reducing casualties and saving lives,' it said. 

The California giant's patent says that the robot personality could replicate the robot's owner, 'a deceased loved one,' or 'a celebrity.' Above it Atlas, which according to Google-owned Boston Dynamics, is a 'high mobility, humanoid robot designed to negotiate outdoor, rough terrain.

The teams using the DARPA-developed Atlas robot will use an entirely new version, which is battery powered for the first time.

Gill Pratt, of DARPA said: 'Atlas unplugged is the upgrade to allow it to run entirely on batteries. 

'We have to cut the cord.'

'The new Atlas is 75% new, it has much more dexterity and is quieter, and stronger.

'The introduction of a battery and variable-pressure pump into Atlas poses a strategic challenge for teams,' said Pratt. 

'The operator will be able to run the robot on a mid-pressure setting for most operations to save power, and then apply bursts of maximum pressure when additional force is needed.'

During the finals, a series of events will be held to replicate disasters. 

 'The finals will be very hard. We want them to be more like real disasters, the robots will have to do all these tasks in sequence with no human help.  

Given their identical hardware, the Atlas teams will have to differentiate themselves through software, control interfaces, and competition strategy. 

The Atlas robot has already shown it can walk, jump and even drive a car 

The 'crane' stance, being held by Karate Kid Daniel LaRusso (played by Ralph Maccio left) in the 1984 film inspired the latest movements of the Atlas robot. It demonstrates strong balancing skills and composure and showcases the agility of the Google-owned machine, said the firm

Google has even developed a system to allow robots to download new personalities online.

The system would allow machines to download them in a similar way to an app - and even have a different personality for each user.

The patent says that the personality could replicate the robot's owner, 'a deceased loved one,' or 'a celebrity,'  

Google's patent details a cloud-based system where a personality could be downloaded to a robot, in the same way one might download an app. 

 'The robot personality may also be modifiable within a base personality construct (i.e., a default-persona) to provide states or moods representing transitory conditions of happiness, fear, surprise, perplexion (e.g., the Woody Allen robot), thoughtfulness, derision (e.g., the Rodney Dangerfield robot), and so forth,' states the patent.

Atlas robot performs impressive karate kid style balancing act

 

Friends will even be able to clone their robots and swap aspects of its personality.

'The personality and state may be shared with other robots so as to clone this robot within another device or devices. 

'In this manner, a user may travel to another city, and download within a robot in that city (another 'skin') the personality and state matching the user's 'home location' robot. 

'The robot personality thereby becomes transportable or transferable.'

 The firm also explains 'This disclosure relates to a robot imbued with a personality, or personalities.

'In particular, but without limitation, the disclosure provides for a robot that operates with personality attributes and related capabilities drawn from cloud computing capacities. 

'Personality may be thought of as personification in the sense of human characteristics or qualities attributed to a non-human thing. 

'A robot can be programmed to provide a desired look as well as interactability for the robot, which may be subject to change by the user or by the robot itself, such that the robot interface is customized to provide a desired personality for the robot.' 

 

Read more:  United States Patent: D729274

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3201279/Watch-Google-s-terrifying-humanoid-robot-running-forest-firm-pledges-soon-agile-humans.html#ixzz3jEVWnZRg

 

Stocks set up for ‘ugly decline’ as early as Thursday

MARKET  TIMER  TOM  MCCLELLAN  SEES  STOCKS  SET  UP  FOR  'UGLY  DECLINE'  AS  EARLY  AS  THURSDAY 

By Tomi Kilgore 

Aug 18, 2015 5:18 p.m. ET

McClellan is bullish today, but he expects definitive peak in stocks between Aug. 20 and Aug. 26

Tom McClellan expects ‘nothing good for bulls’ the rest of the year

Tom McClellan loves doing what financial advisers tell you not to do. He tries to time the financial markets — to the exact day, if his charts align just right.

At the moment, they are telling him to be bullish on the stock market for all of his trading time frames, including those that trade every few days, weeks and months. But bulls should be ready to flee, as soon as this week.

That’s because McClellan said his timing models suggest “THE” top in stocks will be hit some time between Aug. 20 and Aug. 26. He expects “nothing good for the bulls for the rest of the year,” he said in a phone interview with MarketWatch.

McClellan doesn’t have a strong view on how far stocks could fall, just that it will probably be an “ugly decline” lasting into early 2016. The good news is that his models suggest it should not be as bad as the 2007-to-2009 bear market, when the S&P 500 Index SPX, -0.26%  plunged as much as 57%, or the 2000-to-2002 selloff when the index plummeted 49%. 

“I try to get the direction right, and I let the magnitude take care of itself,” McClellan said.

From his home in Lakewood, Wash., about 10 miles outside of Tacoma and nearly 3,000 miles from Wall Street, McClellan scours over what seem to be hundreds of charts covering the stock, commodities and bond markets, and even those following weather patterns, architecture billings and sunspot activity.

The West Point grad and former Army helicopter pilot also relies heavily on the widely used technical indicator that bears his surname, the McClellan Oscillator (MCO). 

Developed in 1969 by his parents, Sherman and Marian McClellan, that indicator can be used to determine overbought and oversold conditions and gauge the flow of money into and out of the market, according to the Market Technicians Association’s Knowledge Base.

He’s always looking for patterns that could help him predict the direction and the timing of future market moves. Then he writes about those patterns in daily and bimonthly newsletters, as well as in a weekly notice on one chart in particular.

Currently, McClellan sees a number of bearish patterns warning that the big one is likely to hit Wall Street very soon, he reported. For one, the advance-decline line, which tracks the number of stocks participating in a trend, started declining nearly four months ago.

The NYSE’s advance-decline line has been falling since April

 

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 came within a fraction of a record high as recently as July 20. Basically, that suggests the index is being propped up by fewer and fewer stocks, making it much more vulnerable to a shock.

And one reason he expects a big selloff to start as early as this week is a chart showing that liquidity in the financial markets is about to dry up, as investors prepare for the Federal Reserve’s inevitable interest-rate hike.

Drops in smart-money long positions in eurodollar futures suggests liquidity is drying up.

 

Eurodollar futures reflect investors’ bets on where they see three-month borrowing rates down the road. 

Commercial traders are known as “smart money,” because their trades reflect what’s actually happening in the underlying cash markets, as opposed to noncommercials, who tend to trade futures to speculate.

Some may question the predictive ability of any chart, set forward by one year. McClellan’s response: “You don’t have to understand the physics of something to accept and profit from it.”

Combined, he feels the charts’ message is pretty clear.
“We are already seeing confirming signs of liquidity problems in the weakening [advance-decline] line, which topped back in April and appears to be setting up for a major divergence [from the S&P 500], similar to 2000 and 2007,” McClellan wrote in a recent newsletter.

Other charts supporting the bearish view include the leveling off of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities held by the Federal Reserve after the end of quantitative easing, and the high level of taxation relative to gross domestic product.

End of QE could start weighing on stocks — soon

Warily bullish

But if he’s so sure that “a major price top” is coming, why is he still bullish for his short-, medium- and long-term trading styles? “If the top is still out in front of you, you don’t want to exit yet,” McClellan said. In other words, you don’t wear a raincoat today because a storm is coming tomorrow.

A rise in tax receipts to 18% of GDP has always led to recessions in the past

Many argue that trying to time the market so precisely not only increases risk, by raising the odds of being whipsawed — buying high and selling low, or vice-versa — but also fails to beat the more passive buy-and-hold strategy espoused by financial advisers.

“My mother used to say [that] everyone times the market,” according to McClellan. “Some people buy when they have money, and sell when they need it. Others use methods that are more sophisticated.”

You can decide whether you’re going to buy or sell, but you don’t get to set the price. “The timing [of a trade] is the only thing you have control over. Why abandon the only thing you have control over?” McClellan asked.

The bottom line is that, while it might seem counterintuitive, data provided by MarketWatch’s Mark Hulbert, editor of the newsletter-tracking Hulbert Financial Digest, shows that over the past couple of years, McClellan has helped his readers make money while also reducing risk.

Since Oct. 1, 2013, McClellan’s short-term timing signals have produced an annualized return of 14%, compared with a buy-and-hold return of 14.6%.

But the Sharpe ratio, used by modern portfolio theorists to gauge how much return they’re getting for the risk they are taking, was 0.54 for McClellan’s short-term signals, which was better than the risk-adjusted return reading of 0.47 for a buy-and-hold approach.

The Sharpe ratio for McClellan’s intermediate-term timing signals was also higher than for a buy-and-hold strategy, while his long-term signals came up a bit short.

He declined to comment on the growth of newsletter subscriptions over the years, but he did say he makes “a comfortable living” doing what he loves.

McClellan didn’t always love the stock market

The McClellan Oscillator started gaining acclaim when Tom was a child, but he didn’t become interested in his parents’ work until he grew up. “It’s only when I got older,” said McClellan, “that my parents got smarter.”

He took over the family business in 1995 after 11 years in the Army, and quickly started modernizing the process. When he published the first newsletter on a PDF file in 1997, McClellan said he had to call “several hundred subscribers” to explain how to download the software they needed to read it.

While technology has made his job easier over the years, the demands of a daily newsletter can still be daunting. During a recent so-called vacation in Guatemala, he had to break away every afternoon to work on his reports.

The only time he has taken off was when he had some guest writers, including his father, fill in for a few days while he had hip-replacement surgery. That’s when he realized, as demanding and emotionally taxing the daily commitment to analyzing and writing about the financial markets can be, he didn’t want to do anything else.

“I missed writing. I missed the daily involvement,” McClellan said. “It’s a challenge. But I love to work with indicators. I love my job.”

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/market-timer-tom-mcclellan-sees-stocks-set-up-for-ugly-decline-as-early-as-thursday-2015-08-17?page=1

23 Nations Around The World

23 Nations Around The World Where Stock Market Crashes Are Already Happening

By Michael Snyder, on August 17th, 2015 

The Economic Collapse

 

 You can stop waiting for a global financial crisis to happen.  The truth is that one is happening right now.  All over the world, stock markets are already crashing.  Most of these stock market crashes are occurring in nations that are known as “emerging markets”.  

In recent years, developing countries in Asia, South America and Africa loaded up on lots of cheap loans that were denominated in U.S. dollars.  But now that the U.S. dollar has been surging, those borrowers are finding that it takes much more of their own local currencies to service those loans.  

At the same time, prices are crashing for many of the commodities that those countries export.  The exact same kind of double whammy caused the Latin American debt crisis of the 1980s and the Asian financial crisis of the 1990s.

As you read this article, almost every single stock market in the world is down significantly from a record high that was set either earlier this year or late in 2014.  But even though stocks have been sliding in the western world, they haven’t completely collapsed just yet.

In much of the developing world, it is a very different story.  Emerging market currencies are crashing hard, recessions are starting, and equity prices are getting absolutely hammered.

Posted below is a list that I put together of 23 nations around the world where stock market crashes are already happening.  To see the stock market chart for each country, just click the link…

1. Malaysia
2. Brazil
3. Egypt
4. China
5. Indonesia
6. South Korea
7. Turkey
8. Chile
9. Colombia
10. Peru
11. Bulgaria
12. Greece
13. Poland
14. Serbia
15. Slovenia
16. Ukraine
17. Ghana
18. Kenya
19. Morocco
20. Nigeria
21. Singapore
22. Taiwan
23. Thailand

Of course this is just the beginning.  The western world is going to feel this kind of pain as well very soon.  I want to share with you an excerpt from an article that just appeared in the Telegraph entitled “Doomsday clock for global market crash strikes one minute to midnight as central banks lose control“.  

You see, the Telegraph is not just one of the most important newspapers in the UK – it is truly one of the most important newspapers in the entire world.  When it speaks on financial matters, millions of people listen very carefully.  So for the Telegraph to declare that the countdown to a “global market crash” is “one minute to midnight” is a very, very big deal…

When the banking crisis crippled global markets seven years ago, central bankers stepped in as lenders of last resort. Profligate private-sector loans were moved on to the public-sector balance sheet and vast money-printing gave the global economy room to heal.

Time is now rapidly running out. From China to Brazil, the central banks have lost control and at the same time the global economy is grinding to a halt. It is only a matter of time before stock markets collapse under the weight of their lofty expectations and record valuations.

I encourage you to read the rest of that excellent article right here.  It contains lots of charts and graphs, and it discusses many of the exact same things that I have been hammering on for months.

When one of the newspapers of record for the entire planet starts sounding exactly like The Economic Collapse Blog, then you know that it is late in the game.

Others are sounding the alarm about an imminent global financial crash as well.  For example, just consider what Egon von Greyerz recently told King World News…

Eric, I fear that this coming September – October all hell will break loose in the world economy and markets. A lot of factors point to that, both fundamental and technical indicators and this indicates that we could have a number of shocks this autumn.

Sadly, most investors will hold stocks, bonds and property and will see any decline in value as an opportunity. It will be a long time and a very big fall before they realize that the system will not help them this time because the central bankers have run out of ammunition to save the global financial system one more time. Yes, we will see more massive money printing, but it will just make things worse. And at some stage, which could be quite soon, real fear will set in, a fear of a magnitude the world has not experienced before.

Hmm – there is another example of someone talking about September.  It is funny how often that month keeps coming up.

And of course most of the major stock market crashes in U.S. history have been in the fall.  Just go back and take a look at what happened in 1929, 1987, 2001 and 2008.

The “smart money” has been pulling their money out of stocks for quite a while now, and at this point a lot of others have hopped on the bandwagon.  The following comes from CNBC…

The flight of investor money from U.S. stocks has turned into a stampede.

In fact, the $78.7 billion leaving domestic equity-focused funds has been worse in 2015 than it was even during the financial crisis years, when the S&P 500 tumbled some 60 percent, according to data released Friday by Morningstar. The total is the highest since 1993.

Domestic equity funds surrendered $20.4 billion in July alone and have seen $158.6 billion in redemptions over the past 12 months. Even a strong flow of money into passively managed exchange-traded funds has been unable to offset the stream to the exit among retail investors, who generally focus more on mutual funds than ETFs.

A global financial crisis has already begun.  So those that were claiming that one would not happen in 2015 are already wrong.  Over the coming months we will find out how bad it will ultimately be.

Sometimes I get criticized for talking about these things.  There are a few people out there that don’t like all of the “doom and gloom” that I discuss on my website.  Apparently it is a bad thing to talk about the things that really matter and we should all just be “keeping up with the Kardashians” instead.

I consider myself just to be another watchman on the wall.  From our spots on the wall, watchmen such as myself all over the nation are sounding the alarm about what we clearly see coming.  If we saw what was coming and we did not warn the people, their blood would be on our hands.  But if we do warn the people, then we have done our duty.

Every day I just do the best that I can with what I have been given.  And there are many others just like me that are doing exactly the same thing.

Those that do not like the warning message are going to feel really stupid when things start falling apart all around them and they finally realize how wrong they truly were.

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/23-nations-around-the-world-where-stock-market-crashes-are-already-happening
 

'Sen' John McCain - Even the Navajo Tribe hate him

‘Get Off Our Land’: Watch as Members of Navajo Tribe Literally Appear to Chase Sen. John McCain Off Their Reservation — Here’s Why

Aug. 17, 2015 9:27am Liz Klimas 

 

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey Friday visited the Navajo Nation reservation’s capital Window Rock to celebrate the Native Americans whose indecipherable language helped keep messages secret from enemies during World War II.

Protesters ran after SUVs that some said included one for Sen. John McCain, chasing them from the Navajo Nation Museum. 

The event though was met by a protest regarding the federal government’s response to a toxic spill into rivers considered a lifeline for reservation and halted use of water for residential and agricultural use.

According to Native News, McCain and Ducey met with Navajo Nation President Russell Begaye and Vice President Jonathan Nez to discuss the creation of a Navajo Code Talkers Museum.

But the recent spill of millions of gallons of contaminated wastewater into the Animas and San Juan Rivers by a contractor doing work for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency ended up being the focus for the tribal leaders.

“I keep saying when are we going to hear from the White House? Not a word,” Begaye said, according to Native News. “When somebody wins the Super Bowl or an NBA Championship, they get a call, right? And when something like this happens and people are suffering, nothing.”

“This is just one mine out of hundreds and there’s no Superfund designation,” Vice President Nez said. “Right now, we don’t trust the U.S. EPA’s data and their collection.”

Video purports to show protesters “chasing McCain off the Navajo Nation” while they yelled “get off our land.”

          Protesters held anti-McCain signs outside the museum

Protesters gathered at a closed side door in the museum, held shut by officials, but they eventually broke through and were met by other law enforcement agent who temporarily held them back from SUVs. 

As the vehicles drove off, the protesters ran in pursuit. (Content warning: strong language):

Dusty’s Navajo Political Sphere, a man’s Facebook account that includes political and community news from the Navajo Nation, wrote that 60 or so protesters went after McCain and Navajo Nation leaders when they went to “attend a secret meeting.”

“There are a lot of things on the Navajo Nation that our groups large and small are going to tackle. We cannot trust our Government, so we will make things right, ourselves,” Dusty’s Navajo Political Sphere wrote. 

KPNX-TV reported that protesters held signs that read ”McCain = Indian Killer” and “McCain’s Not Welcome Here” as they stood outside the museum. The news station recorded a woman shouting “No making deals behind closed doors … we need our water.”

Watch the report:

EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy said the agency takes full responsibility and is working on testing to understand the full impact of the spill from the Gold King Mine in Silverton, Colorado, and how it originated in the first place.

Speaking with NPR over the weekend, McCarthy, in response to being asked about how the agency would respond to such a situation if a private company were at fault, said “we are holding ourselves to a higher standard than we would hold other responsible parties.”

On Friday, federal officials said initial tests on sediments collected downstream of a mine waste spill show no risk to people using Colorado’s Animas River.

Officials said concentrations of metals including lead, thallium, silver and antimony had increased since 3 million gallons of contaminated wastewater spilled from the inactive mine on August 5. But David Ostrander with the EPA contamination levels still were too low to be a concern. Testing included downstream of the spill site to north of the city of Durango.

Outside experts warn that any contamination in the sediments could be stirred up by future flooding, posing a risk to human health and the environment. Tribal leaders with the Navajo Nation have expressed this concern as well.

Recreational use of the Animas and San Juan Rivers reopened Friday.
—
The Associated press contributed to this report.  This story has been updated to correct a typo.
 
http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2015/08/17/get-off-our-land-watch-as-members-of-navajo-tribe-literally-appear-chase-sen-john-mccain-off-their-reservation-heres-why/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Firewire%20Morning%20Edition%20Recurring%20v2%202015-08-18&utm_term=Firewire_Morning_Test