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Exclusive public outlet for documentation and notices from The Original Jurisdiction Republic 1861 circa 2010.
Netherlands has already moved 122 tons of gold holdings back home,
while Switzerland and France are considering the same move. Germany abandoned
the plan to repatriate its gold despite pressure from Eurosceptics.
MOSCOW,
November 28 (Sputnik), Ekaterina Blinova — Growing concerns
over economic stagnation and unprecedented money printing have pushed
European nations into repatriating their gold and as well
as increasing their gold bullion national reserves.
"The
2008 financial crisis and its aftermath have revived interest in a
monetary policy instrument of a bygone era: gold. This trend is especially
pronounced in Europe, where central banks face public pressure to buy
more gold or bring back home what they hold in vaults overseas," the
Wall Street Journal reported.
According
to the media source, the Swiss National Bank "could be forced
to more than double its gold assets," while selling gold would
be restricted. The “Save Our Swiss Gold” campaign is preparing for a vote
on November 30, which could require the SNB to repatriate all
of its gold reserves from overseas vaults.
The
Netherlands has already returned 122 tons of its gold holdings
from the US, with the Dutch Central Bank announcing that the decision
to repatriate the gold would obviously "have a positive effect
on public confidence." Remarkably, in 2012 the Dutch president
stated that he didn't consider repatriating gold due to the fact it was "absolutely
safe in Manhattan."
The
National Front led by Marine Le Pen is urging the French government
to return its gold from abroad. Le Pen wrote an open letter
to Christian Noyer, governor of the Bank of France, calling
for the repatriation of France's gold holdings and asking
for an independent organization to be allowed "to audit the
country's current holdings of 2,435 metric tons," Kitco News reports.
The National Front leader has also recommended the Bank of France increase
reserves by 20 percent and "never sell its gold reserves."
Germany's
plan to bring its $635 billion worth of gold bullion reserves back
was abandoned by the German authorities. "The Americans are
taking good care of our gold, we have no reasons for mistrust,”
Nobert Barthle, the German Parliament Budget spokesman said as quoted
by RT. However, this decision has met heavy criticism
from Eurosceptics, who insist that German overseas holdings should be
inspected annually, as the Bundesbank does with its reserves
in Frankfurt, Hans Olaf Henkel, German member of the European Parliament
stressed.
Watch hilarious moment teenage
girl cuts into Thanksgiving two-bird roast… and gets hysterical because she
thinks the turkey has been cooked with a 'baby' inside it
·Racquel is smiling as she removes
stuffing from the cooked turkey
·But she is soon horrified when
she finds a smaller, roasted bird inside
·Her mother, who is filming the prank,
laughs and asks: 'Is it pregnant?'
One teenager had an upsetting Thanksgiving after believing the
bird cooked for the family dinner had been pregnant.
Racquel is seen smiling as she
removes stuffing from the bird, but then suddenly stops as she discovers a
smaller bird inside.
She asks: 'Why is there a turkey
inside of a turkey? Oh my God, what is this?'
Scroll down for video
+7
Racquel's mother asks her to
remove stuffing from their freshly cooked Thanksgiving turkey while she films
+7
The teenager is seen smiling as
she slowly removes the stuffing but then is horrified to find a smaller bird
+7
She suddenly becomes hysterical
and shrieks: 'Oh my God, what is this? There's a baby turkey in the turkey!'
But her mother, who is filming,
doesn't let her know that it's a two-bird roast and turkeys lay eggs to
reproduce.
Instead, her amused mother says:
'Is it pregnant?'
Her sister is captured on camera
collapsed on the kitchen floor laughing.
Despite her family's amusement,
the girl becomes hysterical as she shows the smaller roasted bird to the
camera, shrieking: 'Mom, this isn't funny - I'm crying.
'There's a baby turkey in the
turkey!
'I'm upset right now, stop
recording.'
The clip, which was posted on
YouTube today, has already had more than 1.6million views.
What
a Turkey! Girl thinks Thanksgiving bird was pregnant
+7
She begins to cry as she hold the
smaller bird, convinced their turkey was pregnant when it was cooked
+7
As she cries and her mother, who
forgets to mention it's a two-bird roast, says with a laugh: 'Is it pregnant?'
+7
Meanwhile, her sister, who later
uploaded the clip online as 'Thanksgiving prank' is in hysterics on the floor
+7
The clip, which was posted
on YouTube today has had more than a million views already
Subject:This Sunday may mark the end of Western monetary dominance
a dominance that started with declaring monetary independence from a declining power and a currency they could no longer trust.
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November 28, 2014 Santiago, Chile Walking down the streets of Constantinople in the early Middle Ages, you would have immediately felt the energy and prosperity all around you. Constantinople was one of the wealthiest, most advanced cities in the world, and some historians estimate its population could have been as high as 500,000 people. Byzantine architecture in Constantinople was world famous, and local artists were producing mosaics that are still regarded as some of the finest ever made. At this point in history, wealth and power in the world was clearly concentrated in the East. Europe was nothing more than a plague-infested backwater. Constantinople flourished. And even further to the east, China was sporting some of the most advanced technology in the world. But times changed. By the 13th century, the Byzantine Empire was in clear decline. Its borders were shrinking and the empire was at the center of almost constant warfare. And more importantly, they had begun to debase their currency. Again. For centuries, the Byzantine gold solidus had acted as sort of de-facto international reserve currency. It contained roughly 4.5 grams of pure gold and was used in trade and commerce around the world for nearly seven centuries. (Modern archaeologists have unearthed medieval gold solidus coins as far east as Inner Mongolia!) Problem is-- war is terribly expensive. And they paid for it by debasing by their currency. By the 11th century, the gold content in the solidus had been debased to the point that it was no longer worth anything. So they gave it another try. Fool me once. Shame on you. The successor to the solidus was called the hyperon; it was initially struck at 20.5 carats of gold (roughly 85% purity). But this was quickly reduced to 18 carats, then 15, then 12. Fool me twice. Shame on me. Enough was enough, and the rising powers in Europe demanded an alternative. It was the Italians (the most advanced power in Europe at the time) who solved the problem. Florence, Genoa, and Venice were all minting their own gold coins by the 13th century, and the 3.5g Florentine florin soon became the new international reserve standard used across Europe. In many ways, this marks the beginning of the West’s rise to dominance: it all started with declaring their monetary independence from a declining power and a currency they could no longer trust. Fast forward several centuries and we can see that the tables have clearly turned. The West has been the dominant superpower for centuries. Yet like the Byzantines before, the West is in obvious decline. At this point insurmountable debts and deficits plague nearly all Western governments. And they make up the difference by debasing their currencies. This has created massive distrust, especially in the world’s most dominant reserve currency today, the US dollar. Like the Venetians and Florentines before them, rising powers in Asia are starting to take matters into their own hands. The Chinese renminbi (though surely not a one-way bet) is rising in international prominence. And China is at the center of a new emerging global financial system being set up in partnership with Russia, India, Brazil, etc. Western dominance was born from a distrust in the dominant reserve currency at the time. Its decline will be because they followed the same route. And the canary in the coalmine is what’s happening in Switzerland this weekend. On Sunday, the people of Switzerland are going to the polls to vote on a return to the gold standard. It was only 14 years ago that the Swiss franc, traditionally seen as a safe haven currency due to Switzerland’s reputation for stability, was still on a gold standard. In fact, of all the major currencies, the Swiss franc was the last to abandon prudent monetary standards. Ever since then, the Swiss National Bank’s balance sheet has absolutely exploded. Now there’s a national election to return to a gold standard and conservative monetary policy. Right now the polls suggest that the Swiss are leaning towards ‘NO’, i.e. they want to continue to abandon prudent practices and hand over total control of the money supply to unelected central bankers. And if the country that has the world’s strongest traditions for financial stability chooses to turn its back on sound money, what hope is there for the rest of the West? If the Swiss vote NO this weekend, I view that as a major watershed moment in signaling the beginning of the end of Western monetary dominance. We can already see the signs everywhere. Across Europe, government bond yields are NEGATIVE, i.e. you have to PAY these bankrupt governments for the privilege of loaning them money. And as IMF director Christine Lagarde said last week that a diet of high debt, low growth and high unemployment may yet become “the new normal in Europe”. Each of these data points signals an obvious long-term trend. We can see where this is going. But here’s the good news: none of this need affect you. The power is in your hands. Even if the Swiss divorce themselves from prudent policy, and even if your government refuses to maintain sound money, you still have options. You can choose to maintain a portion of your savings at a well-capitalized bank abroad in stronger currencies. You can choose to hold some physical precious metals (or even cryptocurrency) overseas at a secure location where it can’t be confiscated by a bankrupt government. You can choose to own productive assets abroad or collectibles that cannot be conjured out of thin air by central bankers. All of these tools and resources already exist today. And for now, they’re available for anyone to take advantage of.
“A bump in the
road" .... remember that , the President referring to the Benghazi
incident as "a bump in the road." Today I heard an ex-Navy Seal
being interviewed on Fox News regarding a book he has
written about how to handle
crisis situations in our lives.
At the end of the interview he
asked if he could make a comment on Benghazi and of course the anchor said
yes. He then thanked Fox News for keeping the Benghazi story in the
news, since other news organizations are not. He said the Seals who died
deserve the public knowing
the truth about the whole
affair.
The poem was written by a MARINE
CORPS Officer (ANON).
THE BATTLING
BOYS
OF BENGHAZI
We're the
battling boys
of Benghazi
No fame, no
glory, no paparazzi.
Just a fiery
death in a blazing hell
Defending our
country we loved so well.
It wasn't our
job, but we answered the call,
fought to the
Consulate and scaled the wall.
We pulled
twenty Countrymen from the jaws of fate
Led them to
safety, and stood at the gate.
Just the two of
us, and foes by the score,
But we stood
fast to bar the door.
Three calls for
reinforcement, but all were denied,
So we fought,
and we fought, and we fought 'til we died.
We gave our all
for our Uncle Sam,
But Barack
Obama didn't give a damn.
Just two dead
seals who carried the load No thanks to
us.........we
were just "Bumps In The Road".
So will this reach every
American with a computer? Or do we act like the press and give a pass
to the incompetent people who literally sat there in the White House and
watched the Seal's execution on live streaming video and did absolutely
nothing? The Obama Administration obviously won't be held
accountable because we apparently accept Hillary Clinton's statement,"What
difference does it make?"
Planet X System Location According to Astronomer Disclosure Video
If Genuine, It Confirms the Location of Planet X System as Described in Being In It for the Species
Yowusa.com, November 20, 2014 Marshall Masters
A Planet X System disclosure video was posted by secureteam10 on November 19, 2014. They received it from an anonymous government astronomer who calls himself "Ken."
Working in conjunction with a colleague at the W. M. Keck Observatory, located near the summit of Mauna Kea in the U.S. state of Hawaii, "Ken,"used a cellphone to capture this video from a secure workstation.
Assuming this disclosure observation is current, this object was observed while Saturn is in conjunction. (Opposite Earth on the other side of the sun.)
It is important to note that this disclosure video is not corroborated or independently verifiable. However, it is newsworthy and needs to be discussed as the astronomer alleged astronomer making this report sounds credible and comments at length about surface perturbations of Saturn and Uranus.
In this article, I will examine the notable aspects this disclosure video and close with a special message to "Ken," and his colleague.
Video Analysis
This video was posted by the secureteam10 Youtube.com channel and titled, 11/19/14 LEAKED! GIANT BODY BEHIND SATURN ENTERING SOLAR SYSTEM - COVERUP.
In his disclosure video, "Ken," states the discovery of this object began with the observations of never before seen, glowing storms on Uranus. This in turn led to an investigation of Saturn and the subsequent concern of government agencies regarding an unforeseen force entering our system.
"Ken" further states that while there is a concern this unforeseen force could be the early formation of a black hole, he states that recent observations show it to be a massive planetoid shape, many times larger than Saturn and solid in form.
Given that "Ken" does specify who made the observation shown in this video or when, what we do see is the image itself and two things of interest:
According to "Ken," this disclosure video is a cellphone video of a secure monitor. At Saturn's 2 o'clock position, we see a screen cursor as evidence of that.
Of note is the shadow on Saturn's rings. If you Google images of Saturn, you'll see several example of shadows relative to Saturn's position vis-a-vis the Sun.
We examined that shadow to see if it showed signs of image editing. In other words, is it 'Photoshoped'?
Given the low 72DPI resolution of the disclosure video, it is impossible to say with certainty, but our examination shows no signs of editing or any other unnatural image patterns.
This brings us to a fundamental question. If this is a genuine disclosure video, where is this "massive planetoid shape"?
Where Is This "Massive Planetoid Shape" Now?
Whistleblower "Ken" does not offer a date nor says which telescope was used for the observation presented in his disclosure video. He only states that he used a cellphone to capture the images displayed on a computer monitor at the W. M. Keck Observatory, Mauna Keaa, Hawaii.
Assuming this observation was made on the disclosure day of November 19, 2014, was this observation made with a telescope at that observatory?
On the day of this disclosure, Solar System Scope shows that Saturn is in conjunction with Earth (directly opposite the Earth on the other side of the Sun.)
Consequently, while the disclosure emanated from the W. M. Keck Observatory, the observation was clearly not made from this same observatory.
While this could be construed as a knee-jerk, "aha I got yah" moment for debunkers, "Ken" does give us a clue as to the possible spacecraft used to make this observation.
The Rosetta Spacecraft
In the disclosure video, the only observation instrument "Ken" specially discusses, is the ESA Rosetta spacecraft, which according to him is covertly tasked to observe this "massive planetoid shape."
Rosetta is a robotic space probe built and launched by the European Space Agency which is performing a detailed study of comet 67P /Churyumov– Gerasimenko with both an orbiter and a lander module Philae.
The spacecraft consists of two main elements: the Rosetta space probe orbiter, which features 12 instruments, and the Philae robotic lander, with nine additional instruments.
In the absence of observation specifics, could the observation images shown in this disclosure video represents a cellphone capture of the Rosetta mission feed obtained, imaged via a secure mission feed monitor installed at the W.M. Keck observatory?
With that question in mind, let's see where the Rosetta spacecraft is as of today, using the ESA Rosetta Orbit Simulator.
As of this publication date, the ESA Rosetta spacecraft simulator places the spacecraft in conjunction with Jupiter (directly opposite Jupiter on the other side of the Sun.)
Now let's see if the old saying "I just happened to be in the neighborhood" applies to this spacecraft. Click on the image below to study the larger composite view and decide for yourself.
As you study the larger composite, be sure to remember the shadow on Jupiter's rings discussed above for one simple reason. What our government does best are lies. What does worst is the truth.
As you review the composite, it might be fun to recall the introduction to The Shadow radio program as spoken by actor Frank Readick Jr: "Who knows what evil lurks in the hearts of men? The Shadow knows!" [Click here to play MP3]
After this, ask yourself, "why is this "massive planetoid shape" behind Saturn and not somewhere else?"
This video program presents an overview of the Planet X system, how it moves through our solar system and why we always seem to observe it near the Sun and not behind us.
Additionally, it show you where the Guides tell us where the Planet X System currently is, relative to the Earth. Which frankly speaking, is why I took an interest in the disclosure video in the first place.
As you can see here, the polar view (looking down from the Sun's north pole), and the front view (as seen from Earth) are consistent with the location of Saturn on the publication date of this disclosure video, which shows a "massive planetoid shape" behind Saturn.
And this brings us to the most essential question: is this disclosure video genuine?
Until we see a corroborating disclosure and/or can vet the source, what we've got is a thorny question each of us must answer in our own way. With that in mind, I'm closing with a personal message to "Ken."
A Personal Message to "Ken" from Marshall
On November 8, 2014, I published an article titled, Yowusa.com - Our New Mission, in which I stated that we're transitioning from Planet X research to survival wellness research. Then I saw your disclosure video and in the back of my mind, I heard Michael Corleone say, "Just when I thought I was out... they pull me back in."
And for what? A uncorroborated whistleblower blower disclosure video from a source I be vet?. Yet, the dots connect so who are you anyway?
Are you a hoaxer? I doubt that because you present a compelling video, and your paralinguistics are consistent with that of a sober, well-schooled professional.
However, if you are a paid disinformationalist sending us down yet another rabbit hole, then no matter what your pay grade is, you need to run (not walk) to the nearest casino and stake your claim to the title of Bluff King of Professional Poker.
Laugh now, but when the day comes you're standing before your Creator, your happy bullshit will come to a screeching halt.
On the other hand, what if you really are an honest guy, who has seen something, and you feel the heavy burden of truth weighing down upon your shoulders? Maybe this has been grinding on your soul as you stare at the guy in the mirror looking back at you while you shave each morning.
If so, this video will likely be the last thing, you ever do, because paranoid liars with the power of the gun will quickly turn you into a battered poster child, to suppress your colleagues.
Then, we'll see some imposter "Ken" discrediting your disclosure video and humiliating anyone with the temerity to report on it. This imposter "Ken" will be a babbling fool and truth be known; most folks will just sponge it up. No rewards. No ticker tape parades. Just a good bashing.
So what if you are an honest guy and this disclosure really is genuine? Is there any upside in this for you?
Granted, you'll suffer now, but when the day comes you're standing before your Creator, you'll both know you've kept the faith.
أعلن مكتب رئيس الوزراء حيدر
العبادي أن مجلس الوزراء أقر إجراء تعديلات على مسودة الموازنة المقترحة تمهيداً
لرفعها إلى مجلس النواب مساء يوم غد
السبت مشيراً إلى أن ذلك سيتم بعد أن يجري المجلس مراجعة ثانية لها.Office of the Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said the Cabinet
approved the draft amendments to the proposed budget in preparation for
submission to the House of Representatives on the evening of Saturday, pointing
out that it will be after the Board shall have a second review.
وقال مكتب العباديفي بيان اطلع
عليه راديو المربد إن "مجلس الوزراء عقد، مساء أمس، جلسة استثنائية برئاسة
العبادي لمناقشة الموازنة العامة الاتحادية لعام 2015"، لافتاً إلى أن
"المجلس استمع إلى عرض إجمالي للفرضيات التي اعتمدتها وزارة المالية في صياغة
بنود الموازنة في جانبي الإيرادات والنفقات بشقيها الاستثماري والتشغيلي، قدمه
وزير المالية هوشيار زيباري".
He Alabadifa Office statement seen by Radio tow "The
Council of Ministers held yesterday evening, a special meeting chaired by
Abadi, to discuss the federal budget for 2015," pointing out that
"The Council heard a presentation Total assumptions adopted by the
Ministry of Finance in the drafting of the budget items on both sides of the
revenue and expenses in both the investment and operational, by Finance
Minister Hoshyar Zebari. "
وأضاف أن "المجلس ناقش
أيضاً المبادئ العامة التي يقوم عليها بناء الموازنة لاسيما في إطار تأمين علاقة
شفافة مع حكومة إقليم كردستان والحكومات المحلية تقوم على أساس إدراك واقعي
لمعطيات الوضع المالي والأمني، وتسعى لمعالجة المشاكل المطروحة طيلة السنوات
الماضية".
He added that "The Council also discussed the general
principles underlying the construction of the budget, especially in the context
of securing a transparent relationship with the Kurdistan Regional Government
and local governments based on the perception and realistic data and financial
security, and seeks to address the problems raised over the past years."
ولفت مكتب العبادي إلى أن
"رئيس الوزراء حيدر العبادي أكد خلال الجلسة على أهمية إجراء التدقيق على
تفاصيل الموازنة على مستوى الوزارات والمحافظات للتأكد من سلامة التخصيصات".
He pointed out that the Office of al-Abadi, "Prime Minister
Haider al-Abadi said during the meeting the importance of checking on the
budget at the level of ministries and provinces to ensure the safety of the
details of making the assignments."
وأوضح مكتب العبادي، أن
"المعطيات العامة الواردة في العرض الذي قدمته وزارة المالية تكشف أهمية حث
الوزارات على تعظيم إيراداتها كي لا تنعكس آثار أسعار النفط على الوضع المعيشي
للمواطن العراقي، مع الحرص على إدامة زخم رعاية الفقراء والفئات الضعيفة ضمن زيادة
كفاءة شبكة الحماية الاجتماعية".
He explained Abadi office, that "public data contained in the
offer made by the Ministry of Finance reveal the importance urged ministries to
maximize revenues to the effects of oil prices are not reflected on the living
situation for the Iraqi people, taking care to sustain the momentum of care for
the poor and vulnerable groups in the increase of social protection network
efficiency." .
وتابع المكتب أن "المجلس
أقر بعد الاستماع إلى ملاحظات أعضاءه إجراء التعديلات اللازمة على مسودة الموازنة
المقترحة تمهيدا لرفعها إلى مجلس النواب مساء السبت بعد أن يجري مجلس الوزراء
مراجعة ثانية لها".
The office said that "the Council approved after
listening to the observations of its members make the necessary adjustments to
the draft of the proposed budget in preparation for submission to the House of
Representatives on Saturday evening after being cabinet review them
again."
What Really
Happened in Beijing: Putin, Obama, Xi And The Back Story The Media Won’t Tell
You
Ukraine, Iran's nukes, the price of oil: There are ties worthy of a Bourne
film, if the media connected the dots
By Patrick L. Smith
November 16, 2014 "ICH" - "Salon"- By way of events on the foreign
side, the past few weeks start to resemble some once-in-a-while event in the
heavens when everyone is supposed to go out and watch as the sun, moon and
stars align. There are lots of things happening, and if we put them all
together, the way Greek shepherds imagined constellations, a picture emerges.
Time to draw the picture.
The situation on the ground in Ukraine is getting messy again. Equally, events
of the past year now leave Ukraine’s economy not far from sheer extinction. You
have not read of this because it does not fit the approved story, but Ukraine’s
heart barely beats. Further east, we hear in the financial markets that the
ruble’s decline brings Russia to the brink of another financial collapse.
Let’s see. Oil prices are now below $80 a barrel. It costs me nearly $20 less
to put gasoline in my car than it did a year ago, and good enough. But why has
the price of crude tumbled in so short an interval? It makes little sense when
you gather the facts, and — goes without saying — you get no help with that from
our media.
Let’s keep on trucking. Secretary of State Kerry went to Oman for another round
of talks on the Iranian nuclear question last weekend. Russia recently emerged
as a potentially key part of a deal, which will be the make-or-break of Kerry’s
record. In effect, he now greets Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov with
one hand and punches him well below the belt with the other. Somewhere beyond
our view this must make sense.
En avant! Obama went to Beijing last week for a sit-down with Xi Jinping, who
makes Vladimir Putin look like George McGovern when he wants to, which is not
infrequently. Still in the Chinese capital, our president then attended a
meeting with other Asian leaders to push a trade agreement, one primary purpose
of which is to isolate China by bringing the rest of the region into the
neoliberal fold. (Or trying to. Washington will never get the overladen,
overimposing Trans-Pacific Partnership off the ground, in my view.)
A big item on Xi’s agenda — he was in on the Pacific economic forum, too — was
the recent launch of an Asians-only lending institution intended to rival the
Asian Development Bank, the World Bank affiliate doing the West’s work in the
East. Being entirely opposed to people helping themselves advance without American
assistance and all that goes with it, Washington used all means possible to
sink this ship. When Obama got off the plane in Beijing, the Asian
Infrastructure Investment Bank had $50 billion in capital and 20 members, more
to come in both categories. Xi, meantime, had a productive
encounter — another — with the formidable Vlad. My sources in attendance tell
me both put in strong performances. In short order, Russia will send enough
natural gas eastward to meet much of China’s demand and — miss this not — in
the long run could price out American supplies in other Pacific markets, which
are key to the success of the current production boom out West. This is a lot of dots to connect.
As I see it, the running themes in all this are two: There is constructive activity
and there is the destructive. Readers may think this oversimplifies, but for
this there is the ever-lively comment box below. I am willing to listen. Let’s go back to early September.
On the 5th, Germany brokered a cease-fire between the Ukraine government
in Kiev and the rebels in the eastern Donbass region. Washington made it plain
it wanted no part of this, preferring to continue open hostilities. And then
strange things happened. Less than a week after the Minsk
Protocol was signed, Kerry made a little-noted trip to Jeddah to see King
Abdullah at his summer residence. When it was reported at all, this was put
across as part of Kerry’s campaign to secure Arab support in the fight against
the Islamic State. Stop right there. That is not all
there was to the visit, my trustworthy sources tell me. The other half of the
visit had to do with Washington’s unabated desire to ruin the Russian economy.
To do this, Kerry told the Saudis 1) to raise production and 2) to cut its
crude price. Keep in mind these pertinent numbers: The Saudis produce a barrel
of oil for less than $30 as break-even in the national budget; the Russians
need $105. Shortly after Kerry’s visit, the
Saudis began increasing production, sure enough — by more than 100,000 barrels
daily during the rest of September, more apparently to come. Last week they
dropped the price of Arab Light by 45 cents a barrel, Bloomberg News just
reported. This has proven a market mover, sending prices to $78 a barrel at
writing. Think about this. Winter is coming,
there are serious production outages now in Iraq, Nigeria, Venezuela and Libya,
other OPEC members are screaming for relief, and the Saudis make back-to-back
moves certain to push falling prices still lower? You do the math, with Kerry’s
unreported itinerary in mind, and to help you along I offer this from an
extremely well-positioned source in the commodities markets: “There are very
big hands pushing oil into global supply now,” this source wrote in an e-mail
note the other day. The Russians, meantime, are
reported to be sending soldiers and artillery back across, or maybe just
across, the Ukrainian border. This we read, but we read nothing as to why this
may be so, assuming for argument’s sake it is. We are invited to accept that
there is no reason worth reporting. I decline the invitation. The
possibility-likelihood-probability — it is impossible to say, we are so
ill-informed — is that these reported deployments are in reaction to moves kept
out of sight. Given Washington’s disapproval of the Minsk accord and its
underhanded manipulations in the oil markets since it was signed, I label this
a likelihood, at least, maybe more. As to the Ukrainian economy, this
is getting sordid even before the International Monetary Fund gets its mitts on
the place. A Royal Bank of Scotland analyst in Hong Kong, Roland
Hinterkoerner, just published a tour d’horizon, a few of the
highlights (or lowlights) being these:
With the Russian ruble cratering, Kiev recently had to remove a
currency peg of 13 hryvnia to the dollar. It dropped 15 percent in the
next five trading sessions. From a rate of 8 to 1 a year ago, it now cost
16 hryvnia to buy a dollar.
With the banking system in peril, a third of deposits had been
withdrawn—before the currency collapsed, this is. “There is no way to
repair this damage by doing some kind of recapitalization exercise that
may still work in the eurozone,” the RBS man writes.
Efforts to stem the hryvnia’s fall have dangerously depleted
foreign currency reserves. As of October, the central bank had $12.6
billion dollars in assets—taxi fare in the context.
Ukraine owes Russia $1.6 billion in gas bills by yearend—and
then faces fees of $700 million a month for new supplies.
The Ukrainian automobile association, to burrow in slightly, just
reported that new car registrations fell by 65 percent in October from the
previous year, to 5,900 units—this in a nation of 46 million. The No. 1
producer, Saporisky Awtomobilebudiwny Sawod, turned out 1,007 vehicles. It
has 21,000 employees on the payroll.
This kind of report leaves me
nearly speechless — and our correspondents silent, of course. All that we have
read of this past year, events taking place in the name of democracy and a
better life for Ukrainians, comes to this. “The economy?” Hinterkoerner concludes.
“What economy?” Onward. “Going forward,” as the
State Department’s chirpy spokespeople like to put it. Kerry just finished up in Oman,
where a round of talks on the Iran question were held just short of the Nov. 24
deadline for a deal. Russia’s role in these talks has suddenly grown
potentially large. To break the impasse over Iran’s centrifuge count, Moscow
offers to take most of Iran’s stockpile of unprocessed uranium and send back
enriched fuel when Iran needs it to power the nuclear energy program it wants.
This is a reprise of an idea first floated five years ago, and this time Tehran
finds it acceptable, at least tentatively. Put this in the larger context:
With the prospect of ending three and a half decades of pointless hostility
within reach, this is the moment to be battering Russia as near to a pulp as
possible with sanctions, market interventions to its disadvantage, and who can
tell what on the military side in Ukraine? You start to think Washington simply
cannot help itself, and more on this in a minute. And so to Beijing. Nobody will
put it this way, but Obama arrived with one failure already accomplished and
others to come. It was a mistake to oppose the Beijing-sponsored Asian lending
institution in the first place, and already it begins to cost the Americans.
The TPP trade pact is no further along, you may have noticed. The climate pact
Obama and Xi signed looks so far like an agreement for the sake of an agreement
— something Obama could bring home in triumph. The only “successes” American
media were able to report were a few market-opening measures of benefit to
specific American corporations. Nothing visionary, fair to say. A junior trade
negotiator could have got this done. And here is why, a point hardly
lost on the Chinese: There is no vision on the American side, only resistance
and objection. Xi has consistently urged a “new great power relationship,” and
if someone can explain why this is not a perfectly logical thought in the face
of 21st century realities, again, to the comment box with it. Washington’s claim to be an
unrivaled Pacific power by destiny goes back to Teddy Roosevelt’s imperial
cruise around the region after the U.S. defeated the Spanish and massacred the
Jefferson-reading Filipino democratic movement. We simply cannot surrender the
turf, realities be damned. Xi, on the other hand, is all
about realities, and not a few have to do with stronger ties with Russia. Xi
and Putin shook hands on a historically huge, $400 billion gas deal earlier
this year. How did Obama feel when the two announced during his visit that they
have just reached another one, this time for $325 billion? Details: The gas will arrive from
Siberia by way of a not-yet-constructed pipeline. PetroChina will take a 10
percent share of a subsidiary of Rosneft, the Russian gas company. By 2020,
China will source a quarter of its demand from Russia; the Russians, in turn,
will by then sell more gas to China than they now send to Europe. Listen to the sound of the world
turning. Wonder why your media do not pass it on to you. Always more in this line, it
seems. Russia is also in numerous other energy deals with China, including one
that doubles petroleum exports to the People’s Republic. Then there is the Silk
Road Investment Fund, a $40 billion vehicle to finance development projects in
the seven nations of Central Asia. Relations with Vietnam and Japan, horrible of
late, now appear to be on the mend. So much, maybe, for Washington’s role as
protector of the region from the reawakening empire. “Add this up,” writes Ken
Courtis, a close observer of the international scene for decades, “and you have
the outline of a number of important initiatives which will be key to China’s
increased lead role in development through investment in other emerging market
economies.” Courtis had a curious exchange
with Putin during some of the economic forum sessions in Beijing. He asked if
Russia would provide North Korea security guarantees if it agreed to renounce
nuclear weapons. Putin replied in part: “Your
question is too clever. This is not the moment yet even to raise that question,
let alone answer it. Often, the problem in the world is not that small
countries, who feel they are under siege, are unwilling to change. Rather, it
is that the bigger countries are all piling on like bullies in the school yard
– and they don’t know when to stop.” I hope Kerry and Obama were
listening at that moment. As Courtis heard it, “I think Putin was signaling to
the West that there will be no more help from Russia with sanctions on North
Korea, or anywhere else. One could also read Iran, Syria, Venezuela, etc., into
that line of reasoning.” I agree. We can start to connect
the stars, then, see our constellation, and identify the costs of a consistent
pattern of destructive behavior on Washington’s part here, there and
everywhere. Specific to the case, the Sino-Russian energy deals cannot possibly
be taken as other than long-term responses to the West’s renewal of Cold War
hostilities toward Russia and its refusal to countenance China’s emergence.
More narrowly, Putin wants an Iran deal to demonstrate Russia’s importance as a
global player, yes, but he is not so far from fed up even there. The obvious question is what we
are watching as all these events unfold and then coalesce into a single
reality. This peculiar moment seems to make this reality clear. Nostalgic for
the period of primacy known as the American Century, the U.S. cannot accept its
passing. Logically enough, the task becomes essentially destructive of the
world as it is a-borning — an effort, in the end, to destroy history itself. The planet’s other major powers,
for all their imperfections and, indeed, disgraces, understand that their time
has come, parity between West and non-West is upon us. This is the core
reality, not to be lost sight of. China’s and Russia’s domestic problems are
rather like America’s; they are to be resolved by Chinese, Russians and
Americans, a point we understand easily when it comes to the interference of
others but not the other way around, when the question is our interference
elsewhere. All too bad. But only for those
who insist on holding on to the wrong end of the stick. This century’s winners
and losers are not yet clearly marked — I have to preserve my optimism on this
point — but with each passing event, each mistake, who is fated for which side
becomes a little more evident. I like the thought a Chinese scholar-turned-diplomat-turned
scholar again made at a dinner in Beijing the other night, as passed on by a
friend. He spoke of Ukraine, but the remark applies across the board. “From our perspective, we see all
of this agitation as noise at the surface,” he said. Then he cited that scene
from “Macbeth” at Dunsinane Castle, “Life’s but a walking shadow, a poor player
that struts and frets his hour upon the stage, and then is heard no more. It is
a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.” The Chinese — always attuned to
the long view. Who are the idiots in this man’s rendering? I leave it there. Patrick Smith is the author
of “Time No Longer: Americans After the American Century.”He was
the International Herald Tribune’s bureau chief in Hong Kong and then Tokyo
from 1985 to 1992. During this time he also wrote “Letter from Tokyo” for the
New Yorker. He is the author of four previous books and has contributed
frequently to the New York Times, the Nation, the Washington Quarterly, and
other publications. Follow him on Twitter, @thefloutist.
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