Saturday, March 23, 2013

FINANCIAL IMPLOSION: Global Derivatives Market at $1,200 Trillion Dollars … 20 Times the World Economy


The Rumor Mill News Reading Room 

FINANCIAL IMPLOSION: Global Derivatives Market at $1,200 Trillion Dollars … 20 Times the World Economy
Posted By: RumorMail [Send E-Mail]
Date: Saturday, 23-Mar-2013 10:43:41

Top Derivatives Expert Estimates Size of the Global Derivatives Market at $1,200 Trillion Dollars … 20 Times Larger than the Global Economy
How Large Is the Derivatives Market?
Everyone paying attention knows that the size of the derivatives market dwarfs the global economy. But how big is it really?
For years, there have been rumors that there is over a quadrillion – one thousand trillion – dollars in notional value of outstanding derivatives. But no one really knew.
Even though the Bank of International Settlements regularly publishes tables showing the amounts of different types of derivatives, some of the categories are ambiguous, and so it has been hard to get a good handle on what’s really out there.
For example, one blogger wrote last year:
Estimates of the notional value of the worldwide derivatives market go from $600 trillion all the way up to $1.5 quadrillion.
Smart guys like bond trader Jeffrey Gundlach said last year that we’ve got a quadrillion dollar derivative overhang, the government hasn’t done anything to fix the basic problems in our economy, and so we’ll have another crash.
But I’ve now found an estimate from a top derivatives expert who confirms the claim.
Specifically, Paul Wilmott – who has written numerous books on the subject – estimated the number last year at $1.2 quadrillion:
The… derivatives market … is 20 times the size of the world economy.
According to one of the world’s leading derivatives experts, Paul Wilmott, who holds a doctorate in applied mathematics from Oxford University (and whose speaking voice sounds eerily like John Lennon’s), $1.2 quadrillion is the so-called notional value of the worldwide derivatives market. To put that in perspective, the world’s annual gross domestic product is between $50 trillion and $60 trillion.
A Clear and Present Danger to the World Economy
The size of the derivatives market is a huge threat to the world economy:
One of the biggest risks to the world’s financial health is the $1.2 quadrillion derivatives market. It’s complex, it’s unregulated, and it ought to be of concern to world leaders ….
***
How big is the risk to the world economy from these derivatives? According to Wilmott, it’s impossible to know unless you understand the details of the derivatives contracts. But since they’re unregulated and likely to remain so, it is hard to gauge the risk.
But Wilmott gives an example of an over-the-counter “customized” derivative that could be very risky indeed, and could also put its practitioners in a position of what he called “moral hazard.”
***
Another kind of market conduct that makes markets volatile is what Wilmott calls positive and negative feedback loops. These relatively bland-sounding terms mask some really scary behavior for investors who are not clued into it. Wilmott argues that a positive feedback loop contributed to the 22.6% crash in the Dow back in October 1987.
As we noted last year:
Bloomberg reported in May:
Mark Mobius, executive chairman of Templeton Asset Management’s emerging markets group, said another financial crisis is inevitable because the causes of the previous one haven’t been resolved.
“There is definitely going to be another financial crisis around the corner because we haven’t solved any of the things that caused the previous crisis,” Mobius said …“Are the derivatives regulated? No. Are you still getting growth in derivatives? Yes.”
***
The global financial crisis three years ago was caused in part by the proliferation of derivative products tied to U.S. home loans that ceased performing, triggering hundreds of billions of dollars in writedowns and leading to the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in September 2008.
Credit default swaps were largely responsible for bringing down Bear Stearns, AIG (and see this), WaMu and other mammoth corporations.
And unexpected changes in interest rates could cause a major bloodbath in interest rate derivatives.
And, no, there have not been any reforms or attempts to rein in derivatives, and the Dodd-Frank financial legislation was really just a p.r. stunt which didn’t really change anything.
But the big banks and their minions claim that the huge amounts of derivatives themselves is unimportant because these are only “notional” values, and – after netting – the notional values are deflated to much more modest numbers.
But as [Tyler] Durden – who has a solid background in derivatives – notes:
At this point the economist PhD readers will scream: “this is total BS – after all you have bilateral netting which eliminates net bank exposure almost entirely.” True: that is precisely what the OCC will say too. As the chart below shows, according to the chief regulator of the derivative space in Q2 netting benefits amounted to an almost record 90.8% of gross exposure, so while seemingly massive, those XXX trillion numbers are really quite, quite small… Right?
…Wrong. The problem with bilateral netting is that it is based on one massively flawed assumption, namely that in an orderly collapse all derivative contracts will be honored by the issuing bank (in this case the company that has sold the protection, and which the buyer of protection hopes will offset the protection it in turn has sold). The best example of how the flaw behind bilateral netting almost destroyed the system is AIG: the insurance company was hours away from making trillions of derivative contracts worthless if it were to implode, leaving all those who had bought protection from the firm worthless, a contingency only Goldman hedged by buying protection on AIG. And while the argument can further be extended that in bankruptcy a perfectly netted bankrupt entity would make someone else whole on claims they have written, this is not true, as the bankrupt estate will pursue 100 cent recovery on its claims even under Chapter 11, while claims the estate had written end up as General Unsecured Claims which as Lehman has demonstrated will collect 20 cents on the dollar if they are lucky.
The point of this detour being that if any of these four banks fails, the repercussions would be disastrous. And no, Frank Dodd’s bank “resolution” provision would do absolutely nothing to prevent an epic systemic collapse.
MORE
http://www.globalresearch.ca/financial-implosion-global-derivatives-market-at-1-200-trillion-dollars-20-times-the-world-economy/30944

Texas moving to repatriate Gold/silver standard


Subject: Texas moving to repatriate Gold/silver standard

Things are moving fast. 

Wow, first in Switzerland, now in Texas?  Texas is moving to Repatriate Gold/Silver.....Awesome!   If every state had the balls to do this, we'd be well on our way back to Gold/Silver standards and off the Fiat money.
Things are definately shaking and Baking out there!
http://libertyblitzkrieg.com/2013/03/22/texas-moves-to-repatriate-its-gold-from-the-federal-reserve/

Bank Wars - Everyone needs to see this!


Watch and forward as everyone needs to see this and learn from it.
This is a very important video...
It tells exactly why we get into wars constantly and the
people need to boycott these wars and not let ANYONE
be exploited by the BANKSTERS.  

For those who seek the truth: The Mafia, CIA and George Bush

> Subject: For those who seek the truth: The Mafia, CIA and George Bush
>
> (Mailing list information, including how to remove yourself, is located at the end of this message.)
>
> Links are generally posted at my web site http://devvy.net/cgi-bin/dada/mail.cgi/r/alerts/285040560008/
> ______________
>
> http://devvy.net/cgi-bin/dada/mail.cgi/r/alerts/470061826711/
>
> http://devvy.net/cgi-bin/dada/mail.cgi/r/alerts/517172289332/
>
> Flashback:
>
> Jeb Bush's Executive Order and 9/11 (2006)
>
> http://devvy.net/cgi-bin/dada/mail.cgi/r/alerts/213731052073/
>
> Out of their mouths in unguarded moments
>
> "George Bush speaking on September 15, 2006: "For example, Khalid Sheikh Mohammed described the design of planned attacks of buildings inside the U.S. and how operatives were directed to carry them out. That is valuable information for those of us who have the responsibility to protect the American people. He told us the operatives had been instructed to ensure that the explosives went off at a high -- a point that was high enough to prevent people trapped above from escaping." To hear audio, click here.
>
> "Please note Bush's words: "...ensure that the explosives went off at a high....a point that was high enough to prevent people trapped above from escaping." These comments were made during one of Bush's bizarre press conferences. Was this just another Bushism where he fires off his mouth without consulting his brain? I don't believe so anymore than I believe Rummy "misspoke" in this video when he very succinctly states Flight 93 was shot down. "The people who shot down the plane over Pennsylvania." Bush and his minions have always stated Flight 93 was not shot down, yet here Rumsfeld specifically says the plane was shot down. Anyone watching the media video tapes can see the white puffs systematically going off from the top down inside the twin WTC towers. Yes, the explosives were placed up high enough in the twin towers so that people were trapped and as they went off floor by floor, the building collapsed into itself. America watched mass murder in progress.....
>
> Brother Jeb's Timely Executive Order
>
> "On September 7, 2001, only four days before the "event," Florida Governor Jeb Bush issued an executive order. This was only one business day from 911. His brother, President Bush, is due in his state on September 11th. What is the significance of this rather timely EO? "Among the reasons cited in the document for the action was prophetically "potential massive damage to life and property that may result from an act of terrorism" (Executive Order #01-261, Section 3)....However, what is most startling about EO #01-261 is its predecessor. Executive Order #01-261 concludes by revoking Executive Order #01-17 which is nearly identical to EO #01-261 except for the language addressing "potential massive damage to life and property that may result from an act of terrorism." Issued on January 19, 2001, EO #01-17 wasn't to expire until June 30, 2003. This raises the question as to what events occurred on or prior to September 7, 2001 that compelled the president's brother to replace an existing executive order with another executive order which effectively inserted a reference to "acts of terrorism."
>
> "Some will say it was just a coincidence, just like the biggest voting mess in a presidential election ever witnessed in this country just also happened to take place in the candidate's brother's state (brother Jeb, Florida) who also serves as governor. And, the candidate, George Bush, is also the governor of one of the biggest states of the Union! Gee, what a coincidence. Does brother Jeb's new EO, only four days before 911, indicate prior knowledge of something? That new EO gives Jeb the authority to call up the National Guard for "an act of terrorism" and declare martial law. Could the timing be anymore suspect? Why did Jeb issue this new EO four days before 911 when the existing EO, which didn't include terrorism, wasn't due to expire for two plus years? Jeb Bush needs to be put under oath and all the paper trail connected to this new EO (if it hasn't been shredded) be made available to we the people." Rest at link

Intensities of individual upgrade pathway energies are increased

New post on GaiaPortal



Intensities of individual upgrade pathway energies are increased

gaia_energy1Intensities of individual upgrade pathway energies are increased. This is to enable full planetary alignment with Cosmic Higher D influx frequencies.
Subsequent Cosmic waves ensure sealing of Higher Energies (frequencies) into Gaia.
Final planetary movements are in process.
ÉirePort | March 22, 2013 at 17:35 | Categories: Uncategorized | URL: http://wp.me/p2sFUY-eq

We are So Lucky "They" Are Rigging The Markets!


As the Plunge Protection Team continues their relentless market rigging games propping up the stock market, the dollar, the bond market, etc. and all the while suppressing the gold and silver markets...I've come to the conclusion that we should feel lucky!

Not lucky that it's gone on so long but lucky that we have had TIME to prepare for something that we could never fully prepare for without the delays. The shutdown of our entire Global Monetary System will be the most significant event in the history of humankind and WE WILL NEVER BE FULLY READY for it!

Interestingly, I had a brief internet outage this morning and as I sat there NOT KNOWING if it would EVER come back up I thought to myself...am I really ready for this kind of global meltdown? No doubt the internet will go down with the rest of the system. Where will I get my info? How can I be sure the Good Guys have things under control? How fast will it all start up again?

AM I REALLY READY FOR THIS?!

My final answer was NO but that does not stop me from moving forward into the darkness towards the light realizing it is the only way out of our problems.

I have posted a very important Friday Road Trip for Private Road Members and you can find it here:

INTO THE DARKNESS...WHY?

It deals with where we've been, how we came to where we are and where we are headed.

I know it all seems so crazy out there. The European destruction is assured and it won't take long to spread throughout Europe - a week or two tops.  Sooo much different than just a few weeks ago. It will only get worse as the Bad Guys get taken out so try to stay safe. In the end the entire system will all be wiped clean and we will get to choose a new Road forward.

And as always...

May the Road we choose be the Right Road.

Bix Weir

To sign up for the Private Road click here:

Black Smoke Over White House


The urgency of economic democratization


The urgency of economic democratization

Ratih Hardjono, Jakarta | Opinion | Mon, February 25 2013, 10:21 AM

Paper Edition | Page: 6
One only hopes that Indonesian economic policy makers were listening carefully to the speech of Christine Lagarde, the managing director of the International monetary Fund (IMF), at the World Economic Forum held in Davos in January 2013. Lagarde did not mince her words in the excellent speech she delivered on why policymakers must start addressing economic inequality.

“I believe that the economics profession and the policy community have downplayed inequality for too long,” she said, adding that “surely we have all learned by now that it is no longer enough to focus on growth alone. We need all people to share in rising prosperity.”

Lagarde went on to say that “a more equal distribution of income allows for greater economic stability, more sustained growth and healthier societies with stronger bonds of cohesion and trust.” At the same time, she pointed out that youth and women play a crucial role in economic growth.

Lagarde’s approach is certainly different from that of Michel Camdessus, who was IMF director in the days of former president Soeharto, when the latter was accused of being recalcitrant. Things have changed at the IMF.

One way to measure economic inequality is to use the gini ratio. In 2011, Indonesia’s gini ratio was 0.41, which means that 1 percent of the population held 41 percent of Indonesia’s total wealth.

The number looks even worse if the household gini ratio is considered; the ratio of 0.65 means that 1 percent of Indonesia’s households control 65 percent of the wealth of Indonesia’s households (Kompas, Oct. 30, 2012).

In 2011, an Indonesian NGO calculated that, based on a gini ratio of 0.41, the wealth of the 40 richest Indonesians is equal to that of 77 million Indonesians.

The thinking that economic growth without equality leads to instability is not new. As early as 1910, president Roosevelt was already concerned about economic inequality when he declared that the US federal government had a responsibility to promote equality of opportunity and to attack special privileges and vested interests.

Perhaps the book written last year by Nobel Prize winner Joseph Stiglitz, entitled The Price of Inequality, spurred on discussion of this crucial issue, which so many had been avoiding.

In Davos this year, Stiglitz told an elite audience that the richest 1 percent of Americans now hold 25 percent of the country’s wealth and that this was causing all sorts of social problems, especially among young people, in the US.

An in-depth and well-researched report by the weekly The Economist last year focused on economic inequality. Its 25-page coverage on the issue investigated the widening gap between rich and poor and found that inequality was one of the most serious social, economic and political problems that the world was facing.

The Economist quoted the Asian Development Bank, which has argued that if income distribution in emerging Asia had not worsened over the past 20 years, the region’s rapid growth would have lifted an extra 240 million people out of extreme poverty.

This is something for all of us Asians to think about!

The Economist stated that the close links between politicians and plutocrats or government by the wealthy meant that cronyism was established and that this was the most obvious way in which Asian governments have made inequality worse.

This was because businessmen who are politicians have insider access to land and natural resources and to government contracts. The Economist pointed out that cronyism must be curbed, particularly in emerging markets, as a freer financial sector with market-driven interest rates will remove a potent source of income concentration and economic distortion.

Education is a crucial factor in reducing income inequality, as can be seen in Latin American countries. Government spending on secondary education has led to an increase in the literate and schooled workforce, which is then able to work in a modern economy that is very much driven by technological innovation.

The Indonesian government is still fixated on economic growth. This kind of thinking is reflected in a 2012 publication by the McKinsey Global Institute called The Archipelago Economy: Unleashing Indonesia’s Potential.

The McKinsey Institute has been a consultant to the Indonesian government and claims that it helped the government “to better fulfill [its] mission to the public” (McKinsey website). The focus of the report has been economic growth and the ways in which to ensure further growth to attract investment.

The McKinsey publication states that Indonesia today is the 16th largest economy in the world. There is a smattering of discussion on inequality in the publication but not much; instead, the focus is on economic opportunity and on the fact that Indonesia has a young population, which will be powering future growth in incomes.

This is true. Indonesia today is also the fourth-most populous country in the world and 44 percent of its 240 million people are under 24 years of age.

A tsunami consisting of a large youth bulge is about to arrive in our employment sector. As Lagarde pointed out in her speech, “Inclusive growth must also be job-rich growth,” in which a strong dimension is youth employment.

Indonesia is in the grip of large-scale corruption that is eating into our economy and can be likened to a cancerous growth.

As for the 20 percent compulsory government spending on education, which directly affects our youth, how much of this spending really goes into powering knowledge and skills among our young people and how much of it
becomes operational costs for our bureaucrats?

The Indonesian government can get the McKinseys of this world to give advice and help plan greater efficiency and effectiveness, but the crucial test lies in implementation. Let’s stop all the image building, spinning of statistics and political pitching.

Just get on with it and implement plans properly and effectively, because this in itself would be a major achievement.
The writer, a former journalist, is secretary-general of the Indonesian Community for Democracy (KID).
http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2013/02/25/the-urgency-economic-democratization.html

Turner found Guilty






Local ‘sovereign’ leader convicted of conspiracy, tax evasion
Posted:  03/22/2013 8:13 PM
  
A federal jury convicted an Ozark man on Friday of multiple felony charges related to a conspiracy to defraud the U.S. government and tax evasion.

James Timothy Turner, 57, was found guilty after a five-day trial that took place in U.S. Judge Myron Thompson’s courtroom in Montgomery this week.

According to a U.S. Department of Justice press release, Turner was convicted of conspiracy to defraud the U.S., attempting to pay taxes with fictitious financial instruments, attempting to obstruct and impede the Internal Revenue Service, failing to file a 2009 federal income tax return and falsely testifying under oath in a bankruptcy proceeding.

The FBI began investigating Turner in 2010 after he and three other people sent packages to all 50 governors demanding they leave office.

Turner is the president of a group of what prosecutors called “sovereign citizens” known as the “Republic for the united States of America.”

Turner toured the country in 2008  and 2009 teaching seminars that instructed attendees how to submit bonds to pay off tax debt.

According to prosecutors, these bonds were completely fictitious and often written for amounts in excess of $1 billion.

“Witnesses at trial testified that Turner used special paper, financial terminology, and elaborate borders in an effort to make the fake bonds look ‘real’ and … more likely to succeed in defrauding the IRS,” according to the Department of Justice press release.

The jury found Turner guilty of submitting a $300 million fake bond in his own name and helping send at least 15 others to the U.S. Department of Treasury.

Turner also filed a $17.6 billion maritime lien against an individual in Montgomery County Probate Court as part of a retaliatory practice he taught at his seminars.

The press release states that Turner remains in federal custody pending sentencing.

He faces a maximum of 164 years in prison, a maximum fine of $2.35 million and mandatory restitution.




--
Teri

"A nation...cannot survive treason from within...the traitor ...wears the face of his victims,...and he appeals to the baseness that lies deep in the hearts of all men. He rots the soul of a nation—he works secretly...he infects the body politic so that it can no longer resist. A murderer is less to be feared......." Cicero, 42 B.C.E.


Duncan on Ratzinger's retirement


Dear Br. Alex,

Duncan also said that the early resignation of Ratzinger is not a good thing, because this means that the elite have rushed through their schedule to execute their End Time's scenario.

According to Duncan, Ratzinger was supposed to die as Pope as according to Saint Malachi's Prophecy, but because the elite rushed through their schedule, Ratzinger had to step down quickly. Duncan said that the reason and runours of his stepping down are cover stories for the real truth that the elite had to modify/rush through their End Times schedule.

The elite use astrology, which is Satanic, for planning their next move. Probably their astrologers read that the earth was entering the Monastic Ring energy cloud, and the elite's End Times plot had to be rushed in.