Saturday, November 3, 2012
A longtime D.C. political operative sends this outline of how Mitt Romney wins Tuesday to become the next President of the United States.
(Insider is certain Mitt Romney will be circling at least 300 electoral votes on Election Night )
Insider: My work is all but done, so now just like you and a whole lot of others, I’m going into watch and wait mode. That said, here’s how I see Tuesday’s vote playing out based on acombination of first person knowledge of the ground game, a hell of a lot of experience, and just plain old gut feeling. You asked for a break down of my thoughts, so here it is. Going tofocus on the swing states and a that surprise win for the governor I told you about before.
Virginia: We got 13 electorals up for grabs to get the night rolling. Romney takes it by about 60-70 thousand votes. McDonnell has done some very solid work for us in the state and that has been a big advantage.
Pennsylvania: Some major trending for the governor right now that is being totally under-reported by the media. Some counties looking like they will be upwards of 70% Romney. #s will be played tight via media reports during early hours of election night, but watch for a call by around 8:30 or so for the governor. And that my friend, is when the entire liberal establishment really starts to do the backside pucker. The campaign is leaving off Nevada in favor of Pennsylvania this weekend. Much bigger prize. Romney by upwards of 200 thousand votes. Something a lot of the pundits and pollsters are leaving out on the coverage of Pennsylvania is Governor Corbett. He’s been a major player in that state’s power structure for some time, and was a very popular Attorney General there before winning election as governor in 2010. He knows how to defeat Democrats, been doing it for the last couple decades. Beat his Dem opponent in 2010 by almost 10 points. Great ground game and that will pay dividends for us on Tuesday.
North Carolina: Romney. Early call.
Florida: Romney wins this by about 100,000 votes. The Jewish and Cuban votes are putting him well over the top here. Florida is always a big win for the one who gets it, and this time it’s the governor’s.
Wisconsin: Like McDonnell in Virginia, Walker has really helped with the ground game structure in Wisconsin. Incredible work due largely to that structure already being in place for the recent recall vote. Huge pick-up for the governor. The beginning of the “turn out the lights” moment for the Obama campaign. Romney by 30,000 votes which is a huge reversal from 2008. Something interesting has been happening in Wisconsin the last couple years. Major shift toward conservatism.
Iowa: Romney is going to sneak this one out by maybe 5-10 thousand votes. Very tight race. Good news is, we don’t need the state. A pick-up here is a bonus.
Colorado: By now the country will have a very good idea we have elected a new president. Romney will take Colorado by upwards of a 100,000 votes. Maybe a bit more. Like Wisconsin, a big shift away from the 2008 Obama #s.
Oregon: This is my you gotta be crazy call but I mentioned it to you before and I’m sticking to it. The most recent poll out there had Obama up six. That poll was a small sample though, and half that sample came from residents of Portland. The real deal is this, the state is basically split between the two candidates and has a huge % of undecideds who in the end will break for the governor. A late night shocker that will give the governor the ability to call this a mandate election.
Now you probably see I haven’t mentioned Ohio. A couple reasons. Don’t trust the voting out there. I know things can be rigged there more than other states with very few exceptions. (Nevada) That’s just the facts. The Romney team has done a good job of trying to stay ahead of that possibility so I’m hoping for the best but my gut says prepare for the worst. Good news is that Ohio is shaping up to be a state we won’t need if my Pennsylvania prediction holds up. If the governor takes Pennsylvania and Ohio, we got our electoral landslide.
My #s right now, with all the data I’ve compiled, all my experience, and that gut feeling I told you about, has the governor circling about 300 electorals on Tuesday with the chance for a bit more than that if trending really pops for us in the final 48 like we saw happen for Reagan back in ’80.
Now try and enjoy the weekend. Actually, I’ll end with this and I really mean it here. Know I’ve said it already but want to repeat it. If Barack Obama is re-elected on Tuesday they stole it. There is no way my straight up #s are that off. They will have stolen this election. Buried votes, multiple counts, all of that will have been done and to such a degree they risk exposure. But they might be willing to risk it. Ok, that probably doesn’t leave you in the right frame of mind to enjoy your weekend but wanted to say it again. Don’t underestimate the Romney team here though. They have been notified multiple times about this stuff and have the resources to make that kind of stealing much more difficult than previous elections. So while it’s a concern, it’s not something I’m losing sleep over. Not that I sleep much anyways these days.
How about by around 10:00 on Tuesday the drinks are on me? I’m more sure than not you’ll be in the mood for some celebration.
That’s my call.
Posted by John MacHaffie at 6:18 AM