Good Morning, Family:
In case you don't recognize my face this morning, that's only because I've got egg all over it! Not to worry, though. It's about to get wiped off!
We have some angry folks within the banking system this morning. Call centers were put on alert, people were being called into the banks in preparation for handling the rush of folks coming in to do their exchanges -- and all of a sudden, everything was off!
From what I've learned thus far, there was some disagreement over the timing of this release. It appears that they may have resolved those issues, and there is a remote possibility of seeing some activity today.
(If you all remember the 4 Pip movement in February of last year, that took place after the CBI had held their auctions, and it took place later in the day.)
If I were a betting man, however, I'd bet you a hamburger that it's more likely to be Wednesday or even Thursday.
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The President of Commerz Bank International was reported by Bloomberg Television this morning to say that the implementation of Basel III was imminent.
I didn't see the report personally, but it was reported to me that he made the statement that, "If folks have been alert enough to see this coming, and have invested in some of the currencies, they stand to make a lot of money."
Once again, for the sake of clarification (since I've received a number of PM's and emails with this question), the VND and the IQD are in this first basket together.
If you have an opportunity to buy some VND, do it before it is too late -- but pay cash for it so that your purchase is locked in!
The next basket of 30 currencies includes the IDR (the Indonesian Rupiah). As to what it will revalue at, I can only tell you that I have had minimal reporting.
That reporting, however, places the expected return at $1.07. If I get some confirmation or clarification on this, I will pass it along.
Let me address one other thing where there seems to be some apparent disagreement with Delta's 1:1 argument. I don't disagree with the idea that the IQD will be 1:1 in Iraq. If you take a Dinar and go shopping with it, it is going to spend like a Dinar no matter what its value is out of country.
It spends like that now even though the non-revalued Dinar is 1166:1 out of country. For goods imported into Iraq, the cost is rather astronomical at the moment, comparatively speaking.
The same thing is true of the USD today. When I take a dollar bill and go to Safeway, it doesn't spend like the $.84 the USD is worth against its current basket of currencies. Neither does it spend like the $3.70 it is worth against the Israeli Shekel. It spends like a dollar.
The expected rate of $3.42 (or thereabouts) for the IQD internationally will affect the cost of goods imported into country dramatically. Iraqis will go to the markets and their currency will buy a whole lot more of those imported goods than they do today, but their Dinar will still be 1:1 in country.
The same is true of the VND. Today the Dong is even more worthless internationally than the IQD. It takes only $20.74 on FOREX to buy a million VND. Yet when the VND is revalued at an expected $.47 against the USD, it will still spend in country like the Dong does today.
The difference is that anything imported will cost a whole lot less!
Again, let me repeat: I don't disagree with Delta that the IQD will be 1:1 in country. It makes no sense for it to be any different from that.
The CBI has already anticipated that Iraq citizens might try to leave the country with a pile of greatly revalued IQD and exchange it for USD out of country, and they have put strict limits on the amount of currency they can take with them.
Will there be some Iraqis who will try to circumvent those laws? You KNOW there will be, but that doesn't alter the fact that those numbers will be very small relatively speaking.
My argument, therefore, is that all the reports of the $3+ rates out of country are valid. I remind you of the Deputy Governor of the CBI, Mohammed Saleh's, statement a couple of years ago that nothing less (at that time) than $3.33 would suffice.
Even though I continue to hear $3.42 (and that was the rate I saw in the 2013 Budget), I can easily see Frank's $3.86 as the new rate for the IQD -- NOW, and not a year or two years from now.
Well, there you go, Family! My two cents worth for the day.
Hang tight, folks! We are still on a moment-by-moment, hour-by-hour basis for everything to pop.
Blessings on you. Eagle1