Monday, February 24, 2014
http://pieczenik.blogspot.com/
Ukraine Victory Defeats Putin!
The next countries to fall because of the Western “PUT” [Stock Short] on Putin’s Hegemony are: Belarus; Moldava; Georgia; and Central Asian Republics.
As I predicted some time ago, the Ukraine’s civil war would end in a coup. The President left, his security forces did not resist and Russia lost it’s economic/political influence over the Ukraine.
Still the “western front” is not quiescent.
However, Putin’s extravagant expenditures of over 50 Billion Dollars on the Sochi Olympics combined with the loss of Russian leverage over the Ukraine, places Vladimir Putin in grave trouble.
As Howard Cosell the boxing aficionado might have announced over the airwaves:
“Putin, the ten year heavy weight contender of Russia has finally found himself against the ropes. He is exhausted from both the body punches by the indomitable forces from the west [read CIA] to his pocket book and security apparatus. He no longer can maintain his country in the luxurious state they have become used to.”
Only one year ago, Putin appeared on top of the world. He was a close ally of Iran, Syria, Venezuela, Cuba, and in control of the Central Asian Republics Kazakhstan etc. However today, after the Ukrainian coup and the Sochi Olympics, Putin looks fatigued and overstretched.
Putin and his financial cohorts in the Kremlin have to be aware of key factors eroding Russian hegemony at home and at ‘near-abroad’. Here are some of my assumptions as to why Putin is now in serious trouble at home and beyond:
[1] Russian demographics show that the aging population is increasing exponentially; while the youth are not reproducing at a high enough rate to compensate; and they are fleeing the country for better opportunities abroad.
[2] Putin has to contend with ethnic tensions in Central Asia as we have witnessed recently with the Russian anti-terrorist activities all over Dagastan, Sochi and elsewhere in Central Asia. In addition, millions of Central Asians arriving into Moscow, St Petersburg and in other parts of the Russia have caused even more civil strife and increased ethnic tensions with a concomitant rise of Russian Neo-Fascist Nationalism.
[3] Putin just lost his strategic leverage over the Ukraine. Now Putin has to be even more careful to maintain a stronger hand over his ex-wrestler thug, Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko, who has been in his ‘hit-man’ and ‘fixer’ for decades.
Sidebar: I have to share an incident that occurred with me and a companion almost a decade ago. I was on my way to Warsaw, Poland on a train from Moscow, Russia. The KGB knew that I was on the train. At 4:30 am the train stopped in Brest-Litovsk, one thousand meters away from the Polish border. Lukashenko’s security guards armed with machine guns arrested me and my companion, interrogated me for hours then threw me off the train. I finally found my way to Minsk where the kind Belarus citizens offered to help me. I then boarded the train back to Moscow where I reamed the KGB for their cowardice behavior and warned them that they and Lukashenko would pay for this dastardly deed. Riots erupted in Minsk several weeks later thanks to my brave professional colleagues in the US.
But really what makes me so certain that Putin is in very real trouble?
Its the economy STUPID!!! Russia’s domestic economy is literally in the toilet.
Since the 2009 Russian financial crisis, Russia’s growth has been less than 1.5 % compared to a high GDP of 8% in several years ago. Most of the growth came from inflated prices in the energy sector which was controlled by the Kremlin. At the same time, Putin adjusted the price of his energy to his former satellite countries, especially the Ukraine. Despite the fact that the energy sector made up half of the Russia’s budget, the country found itself in ECONOMIC STAGNATION where it still remains. Foreign Investments in Russia have markedly decreased because of a worldwide mistrust of Putin and his corrupt political cronyism. Private sector outflow of capital reached a peak of 48 Billion Dollars, a ten year high. And the capital is still leaving Russia despites Putin’s personal threats against the Russian oligarchs [ex-KGB].
Finally the Central Bank Of Russia is in VERY SERIOUS TROUBLE---closing over 800 banks all over Russia for ‘irregularities’. In a similar situation , The National Bank of Kazahkhstan has devalued its country’s currency creating a financial crisis in the Moscow-led Customs Union—Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Georgia, Central Asia. Russia as regional power is waning if not evaporating.
I tell you these things to explain why a revolution in one country, like the Ukraine has a serious consequence beyond its own borders.
I stated in previous blogs that the President of the Ukraine would be forced out by a coup, I also will predict that in time [not too long], Putin will find himself embroiled in domestic turmoil. Putin will once again recognize the familiar contours of the old Bolshevik Revolution that brought his ancestors into the Soviet Union. There will be civilian protests. Next there will be the repression of the civilians by the Russian security forces. The Russian military will be placed on stand by. Putin will have to decide how much power he may have to exhort in order to maintain Law and Order. Power in the Russian sense, means only one thing. Putin is a devotee of Stalinism. Putin knows all too well how Stalin defined power: “Through the barrel of a gun!”
The real question is how much force and intimidation will Putin exert before he is removed from power….by whatever means.
za vashee zda-ro-vye!
To your health, Putin!
---
IZAKOVIC
http://www.deepspace4.com
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