Last Monday there was a meeting in Washington hosted by the
Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) to discuss
the future relationship, if any, of gold with the Special Drawing Rights
(SDR).
Also on the agenda was the inclusion of the Chinese renminbi, which
seems certain to be included in the SDR basket in this year's revision,
assuming that the United States doesn't try to block it.
This is not the first time the subject has come up. OMFIF's chairman, Lord Desai wrote a paper [9]
about it after the last Washington meeting on gold and the SDR exactly
four years ago. The inclusion of the renminbi in the SDR was rejected in
2010 because of inadequate liquidity and is due to be reconsidered this
year.
Desai pointed out in his paper that there are difficulties when it
comes to including gold, because (and I think this is what he was trying
to say) none of the SDR's paper constituents are convertible into gold,
but gold's inclusion in the SDR would make them convertible through the
back door. However, Desai seemed keen to re-examine the case for gold.
It should be pointed out that if gold is included in SDRs the
arrangement cannot be long-lasting so long as the major central banks
insist on printing money as an economic cure-all. However, China's position with respect to gold and her own currency could be a different matter.
The Chinese government has almost certainly accumulated large
amounts of gold yet to be included in her reserves, and she has also
encouraged her own citizens to own gold as well. We can
therefore be certain that China sees a monetary role for gold while at
the same time she is pushing for the renminbi to be included in the SDR
basket. There is no doubt, if you read the IMF papers from the last SDR
review in 2010 that the renminbi does now fulfil the criteria for
inclusion today. So the question then is will the advanced nations,
which dominate the IMF's membership, permit the renminbi's inclusion,
and will the US, which has dragged its heels on giving China and the
other BRICS nations a greater shareholding in the IMF, relent and permit
these reforms, which were accepted by the other members back in 2010?
The Americans' blocking of reform signals her desire to preserve the dollar's hegemony;
but given she lost out spectacularly over the creation of the Asian
Infrastructure Investment Bank, IMF reform could become the next serious
threat to the dollar's dominance. And if America does not back down
over the IMF and the SDR, she will have no fall-back position; China on
the other hand still has some aces up her sleeve.
One of them is gold, and another is her role in a rival organisation established by the BRICS. The
New Development Bank (NDB) is in the final stages of being set up,
driven by frustration at America's attempts to protect the dollar's role
and to keep the IMF as an exclusive club for advanced nations. Instead,
the NDB could easily issue its own version of the SDR with the gold
lining Desai referred to in his original paper.
The reason this would work is very simple. The
BRICS members, unencumbered by the cost burden of modern welfare states
could exercise the monetary restraint required to tie their currencies
to gold, perhaps running a Bretton-Woods-style gold-exchange arrangement
between member central banks to stabilise their currencies.
However, the NDB would almost certainly want to see the gold price
considerably higher if it is to play any part in a new rival to the SDR.
Other BRICS members would be encouraged to make sure they have
sufficient gold on board by selling US dollar reserves to buy gold,
ahead of any decision to go ahead with a new super-currency.
It would appear the era of the dollar's global domination as a reserve currency is coming to an end,
and the stage is now being set for gold to be officially accepted as
the ultimate reserve money once again, this time by the next generation
of advanced nations.
http://www.zerohedge.com/print/505506
Monday, April 27, 2015
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