Sunday, January 18, 2015

The Honorable Dr Ron Paul Speaks His Mind On 2015 And Beyond


This is a long article authored by Ron Paul, and covers several topics. I have excerpted only a portion of each topic here.
This is a well written article with some deeply disturbing thoughts.
To Read the complete article go to the following link: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article48949.html
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Intro:
If Americans were honest with themselves they would acknowledge that the Republic is no more. We now live in a police state. If we do not recognize and resist this development, freedom and prosperity for all Americans will continue to deteriorate. All liberties in America today are under siege.
It didn't happen overnight. It took many years of neglect for our liberties > snip
Warfare/Welfare State Requires Police Control
As the size of government grew and cracks in the system became readily apparent, a federal police force was needed to regulate our lives and the economy, as well as to protect us from ourselves and make sure the redistribution of a shrinking economic pie was "fair" to all. Central economic planning requires an economic police force to monitor every transaction of all Americans. Special interests were quick to get governments to regulate everything we put in our bodies: food, medications, and even politically correct ideas. IRS employees soon needed to carry guns to maximize revenue collections.
The global commitment to perpetual war, though present for decades, exploded in size and scope after 9/11. If there weren't enough economic reasons to monitor everything we did, fanatics used the excuse of > snip
Fight for Equal Protection Distorted by 'War on Poverty'
Fifty years ago, as a result of Martin Luther King Jr.'s leadership in a plea for equal justice, LBJ declared war on poverty. Poverty was seen at that time as the major contributing factor in the plight of those living in the inner city. King's dream was to make sure all people will be judged by the "content of their character" and not by "the color of their skin." Good advice, but it was never followed. Residual racism remains, but the excuse for every shortcoming in the failed cities is said to be due to the color of one's skin. The very expensive war on poverty >snip
The Victimized Inner Cities
This social disruption has motivated the enthusiastic growth and militarization of our local police departments. The law and order crowd thrives on excessive laws and regulations that no US citizen can escape. The out-of-control war on drugs is the worst part, and it generates the greatest danger in poverty-ridden areas via out-of-control police. It is estimated that these conditions have generated up to 80,000 SWAT raids per year in the United States. Most are in poor neighborhoods and involve black homes and businesses being hit disproportionately. This involves a high percentage of no-knock > snip
The Victimized Inner Cities
This social disruption has motivated the enthusiastic growth and militarization of our local police departments. The law and order crowd thrives on excessive laws and regulations that no US citizen can escape. The out-of-control war on drugs is the worst part, and it generates the greatest danger in poverty-ridden areas via out-of-control police. It is estimated that these conditions have generated up to 80,000 SWAT raids per year in the United States. Most are in poor neighborhoods and involve black homes and businesses being hit disproportionately. This involves a high percentage of no-knock attacks. As can be expected many totally innocent people are killed in the process. Property damage is routine and compensation is rare. The routine use of civil forfeiture of property has become an abomination, totally out of control, which significantly contributes to the chaos. It should not be a surprise to see resentment building up against the police under these conditions. The violent reaction against local merchants in retaliation for police actions further aggravates the situation --hardly a recipe for a safe neighborhood.
Though poverty and excessive laws associated with the war on drugs > snip
The Rich Are Getting Richer, But Why?
Under an authoritarian regime, those in power take care of themselves. This always leads to poverty and discrepancy in wealth distribution. Eventually the social strife that is predictable leads to an overthrow of the government. The Soviet communist leaders never suffered from want, but even they were routed when the people in the Soviet system decided that they had had enough.
We must realize that we are not exempt from a breakdown of our system. The strife that we are witnessing is a reflection of a growing number of people who are recognizing the discrepancy between rich and poor, the weak and the powerful, Wall Street and Main Street. The courts are obviously failing at meting out justice fairly and impartially. Money and race have a lot to do with how arrests, convictions, and incarcerations are carried out. That provides motivation for some people to become angry and violently strike out against anyone who appears to have more than they do.
While the courts fail to follow the rules of equal >snip
Our Liberties Under Attack
The economic and moral decay of American society is reflected in the loss of liberties. This problem affects all Americans and not just the poor in the inner city. Gradual erosion of personal and economic liberty has proceeded for a century. The loss of our liberty has sharply accelerated since the 9/11 attacks. We have done to ourselves what no foreign enemy could have possibly accomplished.
Government surveillance provides the state with information that enables it to know our every move. The protection of the Fourth Amendment is gone. Many Americans are comfortable with the sacrifice of liberty for safety and accept the notion that government's key responsibility is to keep us safe. It's a nice dream but the truth is it can't do it. One thing for sure: if it tries, it will do so at the expense of liberty.
Welfare, for the rich or poor, cannot exist without the sacrifice of the principal of property ownership. Though it always starts small and justified for the "needy," the principle of wealth transfer incentivizes the special interests and the rich to obtain benefit at the expense of the poor. This occurs in al >snip
The Federal Government's War on Us
Tolerance is a favorable trait when it means acting without aggression toward others, but tolerance of the monster that has evolved in our government is not good. Instead of adding more government agencies to spy on the American people, we should be talking about eliminating the ones we have, at a cost the American taxpayers of over $80 billion per year.
We have lived with the global war on terrorism for over 13 years now, and the threat of terrorist attacks against Americans and American allies is worse than ever. Though a global threat exists, the greatest dangers for American citizens here at home have been caused by our own government. Our government's attacks on our liberties have been overwhelming and worse than anything any foreign power has ever done.
It's the federal government that leads the charge in all our domestic wars, which, in addition to the global war on terrorism, include the war on drugs, taxpayers, and poverty, all of which contribute to the constant war on our privacy. Today every American is a suspect. Our president has establ . snip
The US Empire: Who Does it Serve?
When Obama announced a shift in geopolitical interest to the Far East -- to keep an eye on China -- one TV anchor pointed out that the move seems quite logical since we have a lot of "business interests" in the region. It is, in fact, far from logical if one looks at the tragic mess US government interventionism has caused in the Middle East and the conflict the US government is stirring up with Russia over Ukraine.
Old-fashioned colonialism was deemed necessary by various European powers to secure natural resources along with control over sea lanes and markets for selling manufactured goods. European-style colonialism -- supporting a mercantilistic economy -- came to be seen as politically unrealistic and unnecessary. When free-trade principles were utilized, colonialism did not die; it only changed form. Mercantilism in various forms > snip
Blowback All Around: We Are Less Safe
Economic blowback and unintended consequences is one thing, but blowback from our needless and aggressive policies around the world is another, and every bit as dangerous. As we find ourselves increasingly engaged economically and militarily around the world, we can expect many more attacks on American interests. With so many military personnel abroad, they will be the easiest targets to be hit. But attacks similar in nature to the 9/11 attacks will remain a threat to our homeland. We will not be attacked because we are free and rich. The attacks will come from angry people who have had friends and relatives killed by America's careless and often vicious use of our military force in their countries.
It is not that difficult to feel resentment against a country that comes thousands of miles from home and bombs, invades, and punishes with sancti >snip
What to expect in 2015?
Foreign Affairs
More American troops will be sent overseas to places like Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, and Ukraine. There will be no military victories to brag about. More American military personnel will be killed in 2015 than in 2014. Military contractors will be used in growing numbers and their casualties will not be counted as military casualties.
The Ukraine civil war will not end, and the United States will be further bogged down in this conflict. Relations with Russia will continue to deteriorate. The neocons in Congress will gain even more influence over our foreign policy. Punishing sanctions will continue to be made more severe and push Russia further into China's sphere of influence. Gold will gain credibility as we isolate the Russians from the financial markets.
Sanctions on Russia will alienate Europe against the United States. The British oil industry will suffer from the "conspiracy" of the US and Saudi Arabia to drive oil prices down to punish Russia.
The military-industrial complex will continue to thrive and make even more money with the greater influence of the neocons in the new Congress. Supplemental budgets for the military should be expected, along with covert assistance and additional foreign aid to finance the management of our Empire.
Our enemies' strength will grow and prompt even more abuse of American citizens' privacy and free expression. We should not be surprised if there is a reigniting of the conflict in the Balkans. The first of the color revolutions in 2000 in Serbia can hardly be claimed a permanent victory. Generally, bombs from outsiders don't solve internal problems. Those problems must eventually be solved from within a country rather than from outside interference.
The US and NATO announced that the 13 year war in Afghanistan has ended. There has been neither the pretense of "Mission Accomplished" nor an admission of outright failure, along with an exodus. In reality the war has not ended and instead will continue for a long time. No victory for US policy is possible. The conflict will actually spread and increase in intensity since our goals are undefinable and therefore the war is un-winnable.
Sanity will not return to US leaders until our financial system collapses -- an event for which they are feverishly working
Domestic issues
An honest assessment of the economy will not reveal any significant improvement in 2015. Inflation will continue to plague us, possibly even with the government-rigged CPI figures showing an increase. But the true inflation of the Fed's credit creation, as well as the subsequent mal- investment and the various bubbles bursting will accelerate. Debt in all categories will continue to increase at unsustainable rates. The Fed will not permit interest rates to rise -- at least on purpose. Eventually the market will demand that rates do rise, however.
Tax revenues will continue to rise, aiding the policy of the government spending the people's money rather than those who earned it. Regulations, even with (or maybe especially with) a Republican Congress will continue to increase and make the Federal Register more incomprehensible. Friction between the middle class and the one percent, many of whom are living off government privileges, will escalate further and be reflected in confrontations especially in the large cities. Financial currency controls will continue to expand especially with cross-border transactions.
Blowback and unintended consequences from our sanctions and foreign policy in general will continue to threaten our domestic security and our economy, as well as > snip
Conclusion: Toward a Peaceful Revolution
Authoritarianism has overtaken our economic system as the welfare mentality takes over at every level of government. Once the initiation of force by government is accepted by the people, even minimally, it escalates and involves every aspect of society. The only question that remains is just who gets to wield the power to distribute the largess to their friends and chosen beneficiaries. It's a recipe for steady growth of the government at the expense of liberties, even if official documents and laws written to limit government power are in place. Planting even small seeds of monopoly power in the hands of a few people in government, whether democratically elected or not, will always metastasize like a cancer. This was Jefferson's concern when he advised that "[t]he tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time." He believed the people must warn the rulers that taking up arms against the government is legitimate if the government fails to protect the people's liberty.
This should be a consideration. But if the spirit of liberty is not alive and well in the hearts and minds of the people, violence alone against the government will not be a solution. History has shown that, more often than not, people who rebel against abusive governments, whether run by kings or modern day dictators, do not gain much -- overthrowing one dictator and replacing him with another just as bad. A clear understanding of the nature and source of liberty is required for revolutions to be beneficial. Restraining the few who thrive on the use of force to rule over us is the challenge. Fortunately they are outnumbered by those who would choose liberty yet lack the will to challenge the humanitarian monsters who gain support from naive and apathetic citizens. All positive revolutions must be philosophic in nature to make a difference. Violence alone achieves nothing.
Before we can actually restore our liberties, we most likely will have to become a lot less free and much poorer. This is sad since correct and workable answers are available to us if only the people understood them and demanded liberty and honesty, rather than being dependent on excessive government power and believing the false promises of politicians.
Even with the problems we face today and the bleak outlook for the coming year there's much to encourage us. During this next year there will be the continuation of many more people recognizing the failure of government to create peace and prosperity. More widespread understanding of this truth is required in order to bring about a successful revolution.
The freedom movement, especially with many young people involved, will grow in numbers and influence.
Current monetary policy and the Federal Reserve will continue to lose credibility, especially with the next bailout. Although "too big to fail" will stay in place, it will further alienate Main Street America causing it to rebel against the system.
The real problem of course is that too many "stupid people" are IN our government and have high visibility on the major TV networks. There will be plenty of people, not officially associated with government, who will rebel against various governments around the world. The sentiments supporting secession, jury nullification, nullification of federal laws by state legislatures, and a drive for more independence from larger governments will continue.
We should not be discouraged. Enlightenment is not nearly as difficult to achieve as it was before the breakthrough with Internet communications occurred. Besides we must remember that "an idea whose time has come" cannot be stopped by armies, demagogues, politicians, or even Fox News or MSNBC. The time has come for the ideas of liberty to prevail. I smell progress. Let's make 2015 a fun year for LIBERTY.
Dr. Ron Paul
Project Freedom
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article48949.html

That Very First Billboard Decoded in ''They Live'' Wasn’t Put There by Accident - Photo


They Live, We Sleep: How the Control of Data Allows an Invisible Government to Rule in Secret.
In the prescient and unsettling-but-realistically-surreal alter-reality 1988 cult classic They Live directed by John Carpenter, there are many clues about the real-life police state scientific dictatorship we’re all living under today.
Before the pivotal, iconic turning point when Rowdy Roddy Piper first puts on the Hoffman sunglasses and sees the very first subliminal billboard to “Obey,” there is another subtle message for the police state technocracy to come….
The regular billboard – before revealing the hidden message “Obey” – carries an advertisement for a company called “Control Data” and reads, “We’re creating the transparent computing environment.”
Via Wikipedia: “Control Data Corporation (CDC) was a supercomputer firm. CDC was one of the nine major United States computer companies through most of the 1960s; the others were IBM, Burroughs Corporation, DEC, NCR, General Electric, Honeywell, RCA, and UNIVAC. CDC was well-known and highly regarded throughout the industry at the time.”
During the sixties, CDC created what were considered the fastest computers in the world at the time.
“We’re creating the transparent computing environment…”
What sad irony when considered in the context of a movie where an alien race is using that same “transparent” system to control everyone’s minds through frequency manipulation and subliminal messages.
Control [of] Data, yes? Read More

Zionist Puppets for President


Newsletter:
[Editor's Note: It's not realistic to expect to see a non Zionist-approved candidate to be a serious contender for President in 2016. However, that doesn't mean that someone who will put America's interest in front of Israel's won't emerge in the next year to give the Israeli-owned sellouts a run for their Zio-money. Ron Paul was the only recent candidate who had some chance of winning, if the Illuminati had not boxed him out using their media and helped him to "lose" primaries that he had actually won. It's regrettable that his son, Rand Paul, has proven beyond all doubt that he will grovel to the Zionists, genuflect before Israel, and turn his back on the Palestinian people in order to advance his political aspirations instead of playing a role in saving America from the World Conquerors, but c'est la vie. He's shown his colors. A golden opportunity exists, however, for some ambitious, patriotic congressman out there who is willing to step into the breech and represent the desires of the vast majority of Americans who want to be free of the Zio serpent and its agents.
Hillary is not going to win regardless of who runs against her. You can take that to the bank. Illuminati made-man, Netanyahu-butt boy, Ted Cruz, thinks he's going to make it, and thinks he's going to bamboozle the public into accepting his Canadian birth and Cuban father as being of no consequence in his eligibility to run, but I've got news for him. Wait until he formally announces and watch the firestorm erupt over his eligibility issue. For Americans who can still think and care about America's future, they need to ask themselves if there is even one person in the House or one governor who is still loyal to the American people and its constitution and is willing to reject the AIPAC loyalty pledge to Israel? Suggestions.]
Zionist Puppets for President by Texe Marrs (Jan. 12, 2015)
http://libertyfight.com/2015/Texe_Marrs_zionist_puppets_for_president.html
TexeMarrs.com
PowerOfProphecy.com
ConspiracyWorld.com
It's 2015 and everyone is getting in line to campaign for President of the U.S.A. The Democrats, of course, are set to run Hillary Clinton. But, standing by are Vice President Joe Biden, Senator Jim Webb (Va.), and possibly Senator Elizabeth Warren (Ma.), the lilly-white New Englander who still maintains she is really a Native American Indian. However, it's the Republican Party that has the most interesting candidates. The GOP is literally brimming over with would-be White House residents.
Only Zionists Are Welcome
Now, I've combed the records on these Republican presidential wannabes and, to my non-surprise, all are outspoken Zionists, pro-Israel to the core. There is not a Palestinian supporter among them.
There are some thirteen Republicans prepping for the presidential race, and not a one dares to criticize the little nation state of Israel. The thirteen don't mind challenging Putin and Russia- behemoth nation of over 150 million population with a huge nuclear missile force. They've got the guts to take on any nation on earth. But not Israel!
As far as Israel goes, the candidates all give a yell, "We love everything you do." Israel is, for these men, a saintly example of a nation full of perfected god-men, led by an angel named Netanyahu.
Rand Paul Meets With Jews Every Day
Rand Paul, son of Ron, brags he is a stout defender of Israel. Rand says he has visits "every day" from the Jews. That's every day.
It seems that Rand is going to do his best to keep Israel from being sullied by charges of genocide and ethnic cleansing. When it came out in the press recently that Palestine was considering taking up such charges with the International Criminal Court, Rand Paul rushed in to the rescue. He introduced legislation that would punish Palestine for this indiscretion by having U.S. aid money cut off.
Rand Paul's visits every day from the Jewish crowd reminds me of evangelist Billy Graham, who once told Larry King, host of CNN's Larry King Show, that each morning he consulted by phone with Rabbi Tannenbaum of New York. "The rabbi gives me spiritual direction every day," said Graham.
President Obama reportedly told Sarkozy of France, that he, too, hears from the Jews every day, specifically, from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Imagine, our President, the top evangelist in the world [Billy Graham], and a U.S. Senator, consulting every day with Jewish overlords! From a tiny nation of just seven million! There's no contact "every day" with Red Chinese officials (one billion-plus population), or India (800 million population), Indonesia (220 million) or Brazil (120 million). Only from teeny-tiny Israel, so little a nation that five Israels would fit in one state of Texas!
Jewish Agents and Private Jets
Speaking of Texas, that state's Senator Ted Cruz, a gargantuan Israel fan, flew to Israel to meet with officials and receive marching orders twice in the two months just before he took office. He flew with Senator Mitch McConnell (now Majority Leader of the Senate) on McConnell's private jet.
Cruz's wife [Heidi Cruz], by the way, is employed by Goldman Sachs Bank, and his dad [Cuban born Raphael Cruz became a US citizen in 2005 two years after Ted became Texas Solicitor General in anticipation of his Zio-funded, meteoric ascension from US Senator (won in Nov. 2012, thanks to the funding of the billionaire Jewish Koch brothers and Zionist flunky Sarah Palin) to US President in 2016 ] preaches "pro-Zionism" at churches in South Texas [including the web site run by Suzanne Hinn, wife of TBN's Christian-Zionist and occasional satanic hand flasher, Benny Hinn].
Senator Rick Santorum was assigned a Jewish agent upon his first attaining his Senate post. The Jewish agent made sure that Santorum kept the straight party line (Zionism 24/7).
Governor Mike Huckabee is yet another Zionist clone. He goes to Israel at least annually to meet with big-wigs there. Huckabee claims, "God gave Israel the title to this land 3,000 years ago."
Really? I'd like to see a copy of that title. I believe that Jesus tore it up when, in Matthew 23 and 24, He told the Jews they were "of their father, the devil." Jesus also said that the House of Israel was "left desolate" until He returns. Maybe Huckabee, a Baptist preacher, reads the Old Testament, but forgets those new additions in the New Testament.
Rick Perry Does the Hatikvah
Governor Rick Perry of Texas has merrily done the Hatikvah circle dance with a group of black-suited, bearded rabbis. Once he did this dance inside the governor's office. More recently, in 2014, he repeated his splendid dance performance outside the Capital, in Austin. Perry also flies regularly to Israel in a private jet with his Jewish adviser, a well-known rabbi [Rabbi Irwin Katsof, President and CEO, Global Capital Associates], who also just happens to be a prime financier for the governor who wants to be president.
To Las Vegas They Came
Billionaire Jewish casino mogul Sheldon Adelson stated in 2012 that he had $100 million to donate to Republicans who backed Israel, which means every single one of them. Today, he probably has even more set aside. Adelson and his billionaire Jewish pals had, a big meeting in Las Vegas in 2014 and flew in a half-dozen or so Republican presidential wannabes. Among them was Governor John Kasich of Ohio, who pandered to Adelson right from the rostrum, addressing Adelson as, "My good friend, Sheldon."
Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin was at Adelson's exclusive meeting. He told the audience how much he sincerely loves Judaism and Israel. "I have a menorah in my home," he boasted. Walker and other Wisconsin politicians received $650,000 from Adelson in 2014.
Governor Chris Christie was on hand, too, at Adelson's shindig. He personally met with Adelson and assured the old codger billionaire of his total dedication to Israel. Christie also traveled to Israel, where he had the photographers take the usual photos of the governor at the Jewish wailing wall wearing a yarmulke skull cap.
Very fashionable, those skull caps. I have in my office a sizable collection of pictures of Popes, Presidents, Senators, and other Zionist kiss-ups paying their allegiance to the wailing wall, wearing the little black cap. Why is it that every time I see an American politician wearing the skull cap at the wall, I feel like wailing?
Finally, there's Jeb Bush. He's an undeclared candidate, though it seems assured that he will run. Old Jeb recently gave up all his lucrative corporate board positions to make himself look pristine- for example, he left the board of healthcare insurance giant Tenet, Inc. Very kind of Jeb to take all that money all these years from Tenet, a Jewish-owned firm awash with cash from its involvement in the ongoing ObamaCare scam.
Jeb enthusiastically admits he is a Zionist and, like his brother "W," will defend Israel exactly the same way he would defend America.
In fact, all these guys insist that their love of Israel causes them to put American servicemen at risk in various ways to build a Greater Israel. This also causes them to totally reject the Palestinians - men, women, and kids- who, of course, are all loathsome terrorists carrying around thousands of bottle rockets in their back pockets.
It seems, too, that most of these guys continue to vote for billions [more than Three BILLION each and every year] of U.S. taxpayer dollars for the military needs [?] of Israel. But for the Palestinians, that's entirely another thing. Why, not a one of these politicians has ever set even one toe on Palestinian soil. They love to visit Israel and to be seen with Netanyahu and other Jewish officials while going to lush parties and galas. That leaves the Palestinians, who have only a demolished, bombed-out country, and are forced to hunker down when the Israeli Defense Forces come ravaging, out in the cold. No need to talk to the Palestinians- some Zionists say they don't even exist, anyway.
Jews Have Clout and Cash
It doesn't take a brilliant analyst to figure out why the Republicans gravitate towards their Jewish friends. The Jews have tons of media clout, and they have boatloads of cash to pass out to Republican candidates who behave. So these Republicans have it all figured out. It is best that they continue their slavish adoration of Jews and Israel. If they ever depart from being toadys to Israel, they all know it's bye-bye White House!
Texe Marrs

Tonga Volcano creates new Island




The volcano, about 65 kilometres (40 miles) southwest of the South Pacific nation’s capital Nuku’alofa, rumbled to life on December 20 for the first time in five years, the Lands and Natural Resources Ministry said.
It said the volcano was erupting from two vents, one on the uninhabited island of Hunga Ha’apai and the other underwater about 100 metres offshore.
The ministry said experts took a boat trip to view the eruption on Thursday and confirmed it had transformed the local landscape.
“The new island is more than one kilometre wide, two kilometres long and about 100 metres high,” it said in a statement. Read More

Dr. Jennifer Daniels M.D., M.B.A -- Murder By Medicine is No Accident --...

Policing America


25 Yr. LAPD Veteran, Tom Osborne discusses the challenges of policing modern America
swat
Despite the overwhelming coverage of modern-day police brutality, and the fact that we have outlined the aforementioned brutality numerous times on The Liberty Brothers Radio Show, for the most part police are decent, law-abiding men and women who put their lives in danger on a daily basis.
With the increase of gang membership, and the advancement of the criminal’s weapons cache, proponents of the police could make a case that extra force, advanced weapons, and military surplus are all necessary in today’s law enforcement. In some instances, I would agree. However, the gap between the police and the public is ever-widening and plainly visible; and the police militarization going on across this nation has caused many to question if the scales have tipped too far towards tyranny. This topic, amongst others, is covered by Tom Osborne in the video below.
Tom Osborne spent 25 yrs. in the LAPD, and was a Captain on the force during the, now infamous, Watts Riots. Tom has also taught college courses at USC, and has consulted with numerous law-enforcement officers and departments throughout his illustrious career in public service.

10 KEY EVENTS HAPPENING AGAIN RIGHT NOW


10 Key Events That Preceded The Last Financial Crisis That Are Happening Again RIGHT NOW................

 
Michael Snyder, on January 6th, 2015 

10 Key Events That Preceded The Last Financial Crisis   If you do not believe that we are heading directly toward another major financial crisis, you need to read this article.  So many of the exact same patterns that preceded the great financial collapse of 2008 are happening again right before our very eyes.  History literally appears to be repeating, but most Americans seem absolutely oblivious to what is going on.  The mainstream media and our politicians are promising them that everything is going to be okay somehow, and that seems to be good enough for most people.  But the signs that another massive financial crisis is on the horizon are everywhere.  All you have to do is open up your eyes and look at them.

Bill Gross, considered by many to be the number one authority on government bonds on the entire planet, made headlines all over the world on Tuesday when he released his January Investment Outlook.  I don’t know if we have ever seen Gross be more negative about a new year than he is about 2015.  For example, just consider this statement
“When the year is done, there will be minus signs in front of returns for many asset classes. The good times are over.”
And this is how he ended the letter
And so that is why – at some future date – at some future Ides of March or May or November 2015, asset returns in many categories may turn negative. What to consider in such a strange new world? High-quality assets with stable cash flows. Those would include Treasury and high-quality corporate bonds, as well as equities of lightly levered corporations with attractive dividends and diversified revenues both operationally and geographically. With moments of liquidity having already been experienced in recent months, 2015 may see a continuing round of musical chairs as riskier asset categories become less and less desirable.
Debt supercycles in the process of reversal are not favorable events for future investment returns. Father Time in 2015 is not the babe with a top hat in our opening cartoon. He is the grumpy old codger looking forward to his almost inevitable “Ides” sometime during the next 12 months. Be cautious and content with low positive returns in 2015. The time for risk taking has passed.
So why are Gross and so many other financial experts being so “negative” right now?  It is because they can see what is happening.  They can see the same patterns that we saw in early 2008 unfolding again right in front of us.  I wanted to put these patterns in a single article so that they will be easy to share with people. 

The following are 10 key events that preceded the last financial crisis that are happening again right now…

#1 A really bad start to the year for the stock market.  During the first three trading days of 2015, the S&P 500 was down a total of 2.73 percent.  There are only two times in history when it has declined by more than three percent during the first three trading days of a year.  Those years were 2000 and 2008, and in both years we witnessed enormous stock market declines.

#2 Very choppy financial market behavior.  This is something that I discussed yesterday.  In general, calm markets tend to go up.  When markets get choppy, they tend to go down.  For example, the chart that I have posted below shows how the Dow Jones Industrial Average behaved from the beginning of 2006 to the end of 2008.  As you can see, the Dow was very calm as it rose throughout 2006 and most of 2007, but it got very choppy as 2008 played out…

The Dow 2006 to 2008

As I also mentioned yesterday, it is important not to get fooled if stocks soar on a particular day.  The three largest single day stock market gains in history were right in the middle of the financial crisis of 2008.  When you start to see big ups and big downs in the market, that is a sign of big trouble ahead.  That is why it is so alarming that global financial markets have begun to become quite choppy in recent weeks.

#3 A substantial decline for 10 year bond yields.  When investors get scared, there tends to be a “flight to safety” as investors move their money to safer investments.  We saw this happen in 2008, and that is happening again right now.

In fact, according to Bloomberg, global 10 year bond yields have already dropped to low levels that are absolutely unprecedented…
Taken together, the average 10-year bond yield of the U.S., Japan and Germany has dropped below 1 percent for the first time ever, according to Steven Englander, global head of G-10 foreign-exchange strategy at Citigroup Inc.
That’s not good news. The rock-bottom rates, which fall below zero when inflation is taken into account, show “that investors think we are going nowhere for a long time,” Englander wrote in a report yesterday.
#4 The price of oil crashes.  As I write this, the price of U.S. oil has dipped below $48 a barrel.  But back in June, it was sitting at $106 at one point.  As the chart below demonstrates, there is only one other time in history when the price of oil has declined by more than $50 in less than a year…

Price Of Oil 2015

The only other time there has been an oil price collapse of this magnitude we experienced the greatest financial crisis since the Great Depression shortly thereafter.  Are we about to see history repeat?  For much more on this, please see my previous article entitled “Guess What Happened The Last Time The Price Of Oil Crashed Like This?

#5 A dramatic drop in the number of oil and gas rigs in operation.  Right now, oil and gas rigs are going out of operation at a frightening pace.  During the fourth quarter of 2014, 93 oil and gas rigs were idled, and it is being projected that another 200 will shut down this quarter.  As this Business Insider article demonstrates, this is also something that happened during the financial crisis of 2008 and it continued well into 2009.

#6 The price of gasoline takes a huge tumble.  Millions of Americans are celebrating that the price of gasoline has plummeted in recent weeks.  But they were also celebrating when it happened back in 2008 as well.  But of course it turned out that there was really nothing to celebrate in 2008.  In short order, millions of Americans lost their jobs and their homes.  So the chart that I have posted below is definitely not “good news”…

Gas Price 2015

#7 A broad range of industrial commodities begin to decline in price.  When industrial commodities go down in price, that is a sign that economic activity is slowing down.  And just like in 2008, that is what we are watching unfold on the global stage right now.  The following is an excerpt from a recent CNBC article
From nickel to soybean oil, plywood to sugar, global commodity prices have been on a steady decline as the world’s economy has lost momentum.
For an extended discussion on this, please see my recent article entitled “Not Just Oil: Guess What Happened The Last Time Commodity Prices Crashed Like This?

#8 A junk bond crash.  Just like in 2008, we are witnessing the beginnings of a junk bond collapse.  High yield debt related to the energy industry is on the bleeding edge of this crash, but in recent weeks we have seen investors start to bail out of a broad range of junk bonds.  Check out this chart and this chart in addition to the chart that I have posted below…

High Yield Debt 2015

#9 Global inflation slows down significantly.  When economic activity slows down, so does inflation.  This is something that we witnessed in 2008, this is also something that is happening once again.  In fact, it is being projected that global inflation is about to fall to the lowest level that we have seen since World War II
Increases in the prices of goods and services in the world’s largest economies are slowing dramatically. Analysts are predicting that inflation will fall below 2pc in all of the countries that make up the G7 group of advanced nations this year – the first time that has happened since before the Second World War.
Indeed, Japan was the only G7 country whose inflation rate was above 2pc last year. And economists believe that was because its government increased sales tax which had the effect of artificially boosting prices.
#10 A crisis in investor confidence.  Just prior to the last financial crisis, the confidence that investors had that we would be able to avoid a stock market collapse in the next six months began to decline significantly.  And guess what?  That is something else that is happening once again…
Investor confidence that the US will avoid a stock-market crash in the next six months has dropped dramatically since last spring. 
The Yale School of Management publishes a monthly Crash Confidence Index. The index shows the proportion of investors who believe we will avoid a stock-market crash in the next six months. 
Yale points out that “crash confidence reached its all-time low, both for individual and institutional investors, in early 2009, just months after the Lehman crisis, reflecting the turmoil in the credit markets and the strong depression fears generated by that event, and is plausibly related to the very low stock market valuations then.”
Are you starting to get the picture?  And of course I am not the only one warning about these things.  As I wrote about earlier in the week, there are a whole host of prominent voices that are now warning of imminent financial danger.

Today, I would like to add one more name to the list.  He is respected author James Howard Kunstler, and what he predicts is coming in 2015 is absolutely chillinghttp://kunstler.com/forecast/forecast-2015/

PRICE OF OIL TO RIP GLOBAL ECONOMY TO SHREDS


Boom Goes The Dynamite: The Crashing Price Of Oil Is Going To Rip The Global Economy To Shreds.......

 
Michael Snyder, on January 12th, 2015
 
Boom Goes The Dynamite - Public Domain    If you were waiting for a “black swan event” to come along and devastate the global economy, you don’t have to wait any longer.  As I write this, the price of U.S. oil is sitting at $45.76 a barrel.  It has fallen by more than 60 dollars a barrel since June.  There is only one other time in history when we have seen anything like this happen before.  That was in 2008, just prior to the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.  But following the financial crisis of 2008, the price of oil rebounded fairly rapidly. 

As you will see below, there are very strong reasons to believe that it will not happen this time.  And the longer the price of oil stays this low, the worse our problems are going to get.  At a price of less than $50 a barrel, it is just a matter of time before we see a huge wave of energy company bankruptcies, massive job losses, a junk bond crash followed by a stock market crash, and a crisis in commodity derivatives unlike anything that we have ever seen before.  So let’s hope that a very unlikely miracle happens and the price of oil rebounds substantially in the months ahead.  Because if not, the price of oil is going to absolutely rip the global economy to shreds.

What amazes me is that there are still many economic "experts” in the mainstream media that are proclaiming that the collapse in the price of oil is going to be a good thing for the U.S. economy.

The only precedent that we can compare the current crash to is the oil price collapse of 2008.  You can see both crashes on the chart below…

Price Of Oil Since 2006

If rapidly falling oil prices are good economic news, that collapse should have pushed the U.S. economy into overdrive.
But that didn’t happen, did it?  Instead, we plunged into the deepest recession that we have seen since the Great Depression.
And unless there is a miracle rebound in the price of oil now, we are going to experience something similar this time.

Already, we are seeing oil rigs shut down at a staggering pace.  The following is from Bloomberg
U.S. oil drillers laid down the most rigs in the fourth quarter since 2009. And things are about to get much worse. 
The rig count fell by 93 in the three months through Dec. 26, and lost another 17 last week, Baker Hughes Inc. data show. About 200 more will be idled over the next quarter as U.S. oil explorers make good on their promises to curb spending, according to Moody’s Corp.
But that was just the beginning of the carnage.  61 more oil rigs shut down last week alone, and hundreds more are being projected to shut down in the months ahead.

For those that cannot connect the dots, that is going to translate into the loss of large numbers of good paying jobs.  Just check out what is happening in Texas
A few days ago, Helmerich & Payne, announced that it would idle 50 more drilling rigs in February, after having already idled 11 rigs. Each rig accounts for about 100 jobs. This will cut its shale drilling activities by 20%.  
The other two large drillers, Nabors Industries and Patterson-UTI Energy, are on a similar program. All three combined are “likely to cut approximately 15,000 jobs out of the 50,000 people they currently employ,” said Oilpro Managing Director Joseph Triepke.
Unfortunately, this crisis will not just be localized to states such as Texas.  There are tens of thousands of small and mid-size firms that will be affected. 

The following is from a recent CNBC report
More than 20,000 small and midsize firms drive the “hydrocarbon revolution” in the U.S. that has helped the oil and gas industry thrive in recent years, and they produce more than 75 percent of the nation’s oil and gas output, according to the Manhattan Institute for Policy Research’s February 2014 Power & Growth Initiative Report. The Manhattan Institute is a conservative think tank in New York City. 
A sustained decline in prices could lead to layoffs at these firms, say experts. “The energy industry has been one of the job-growth areas leading us out of the recession,” said Chad Mabry, a Houston-based analyst in the energy and natural resources research department of boutique investment bank MLV & Co. in New York City. “In 2015, that changes in this price environment,” he said. “We’re probably going to see some job losses on a fairy significant scale if this keeps up.”
If the price of oil makes a major comeback, the carnage will ultimately not be that bad. But if it stays at this level or keeps going down for an extended period of time, it is inevitable that a whole bunch of those firms will go bankrupt and their debt will go bad.  That would mean a junk bond crash unlike anything that Wall Street has ever experienced.  And as I have written about previously, a stock market crash almost always follows a junk bond crash.

These are things that happened during the last financial crisis and that are repeating again right in front of our eyes. Another thing that happened in 2008 that is happening again is a crash in industrial commodity prices.

At this point, industrial commodity prices have hit a 12 year low.  I am talking about industrial commodities such as copper, iron ore, steel and aluminum.  This is a huge sign that global economic activity is slowing down and that big trouble is on the way.

So what is driving this?  The following excerpt from a recent Zero Hedge article gives us a clue…
Globally there are over $9 trillion worth of borrowed US Dollars in the financial system. When you borrow in US Dollars, you are effectively SHORTING the US Dollar.  Which means that when the US Dollar rallies, your returns implode regardless of where you invested the borrowed money (another currency, stocks, oil, infrastructure projects, derivatives). 
Take a look at commodities. Globally, there are over $22 TRILLION worth of derivatives trades involving commodities. ALL of these were at risk of blowing up if the US Dollar rallied. 
Unfortunately, starting in mid-2014, it did in a big way.
This move in the US Dollar imploded those derivatives trades. If you want an explanation for why commodities are crashing (aside from the fact the global economy is slowing), this is it.
Once again, much of this could be avoided if the price of oil starts going back up substantially.  Unfortunately, that does not appear likely.  In fact, many of the big banks are projecting  that it could go even lower
Goldman Sachs, CitiGroup, Societe General and Commerzbank are among the latest investment banks to reduce crude oil price estimates, and without production cuts, there appears to be more room for lower prices. 
“We’re going to keep on going lower,” says industry analyst Brian Milne of energy manager Schneider Electric. “Even with fresher new lows, there’s still more downside.”
OPEC could stabilize global oil prices with a single announcement, but so far OPEC has refused to do this.  Many believe that the OPEC countries actually want the price of oil to fall for competitive reasons…
Representatives of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait stressed a dozen times in the past six weeks that the group won’t curb output to halt the biggest drop in crude since 2008. Qatar’s estimate for the global oversupply is among the biggest of any producing country. These countries actually want — and are achieving — further price declines as part of an attempt to hasten cutbacks by U.S. shale drillers, according to Barclays Plc and Commerzbank AG.
The oil producing countries in the Middle East seem to be settling in for the long haul.  In fact, one prominent Saudi prince made headlines all over the world this week when he said that “I’m sure we’re never going to see $100 anymore.”

Never is a very strong word.

Could there be such a massive worldwide oil glut going on right now that the price of oil will never get that high again?  Well, without a doubt there is a huge amount of unsold oil floating around out there at the moment.  It has gotten so bad that some big trading companies are actually hiring supertankers to store large quantities of unsold crude oil at sea…
Some of the world’s largest oil traders have this week hired supertankers to store crude at sea, marking a milestone in the build-up of the global glut. 
Trading firms including Vitol, Trafiguraand energy major Shell have all booked crude tankers for up to 12 months, freight brokers and shipping sources told Reuters. 
They said the flurry of long-term bookings was unusual and suggested traders could use the vessels to store excess crude at sea until prices rebound, repeating a popular 2009 trading gambit when prices last crashed.