Economist Richard Duncan: Civilization May Not Survive 'Death Spiral'
By Terry Weiss, Money Morning
Richard Duncan, formerly of the World Bank and chief economist at Blackhorse Asset Mgmt., says America's $16 trillion federal debt has escalated into a "death spiral, "as he told CNBC.
And it could result in a depression so severe that he doesn't "think our civilization could survive it."
And Duncan is not alone in warning that the U.S. economy may go into a "death spiral."
Since the recession, noted economists including Laurence Kotlikoff, a former member of President Reagan's Council of Economic Advisers, have come to similar conclusions.
Kotlikoff estimates the true fiscal gap is $211 trillion when unfunded entitlements like Social Security and Medicare are included.
However, while the debt crisis numbers are well known to most Americans, the economy hasn't suffered a major correction for almost 4 years.
So the questions remain: Is the threat of collapse for real? And if so, when?
A team of scientists, economists, and geopolitical analysts believes they have proof that the threat is indeed real - and the danger imminent.
One member of this team, Chris Martenson, a pathologist and former VP of a Fortune 300 company, explains their findings:
"We found an identical pattern in our debt, total credit market, and money supply that guaranteesthey're going to fail. This pattern is nearly the same as in any pyramid scheme, one that escalates exponentially fast before it collapses. Governments around the globe are chiefly responsible.
Click here to see how banks are escalating the collapse..."And what's really disturbing about these findings is that the pattern isn't limited to our economy. We found the same catastrophic pattern in our energy, food, and water systems as well."
According to Martenson: "These systems could all implode at the same time. Food, water, energy, money. Everything."
Another member of this team, Keith Fitz-Gerald, the president of The Fitz-Gerald Group, went on to explain their discoveries.
"What this pattern represents is a dangerous countdown clock that's quickly approaching zero. And when it does, the resulting chaos is going to crush Americans," Fitz-Gerald says.
Dr. Kent Moors, an adviser to 16 world governments on energy issues as well as a member of two U.S. State Department task forces on energy also voiced concerns over what he and his colleagues uncovered.
"Most frightening of all is how this exact same pattern keeps appearing in virtually every system criticalto our society and way of life," Dr. Moors stated.
The work of this team garnered such attention, they were brought in front of the United Nations, UK Parliament, and numerous Fortune 500 companies to share much of their findings. Click on the short video above to see a sample.
"It's a pattern that's hard to see unless you understand the way a catastrophe like this gains traction," Dr. Moors says. "At first, it's almost impossible to perceive. Everything looks fine, just like in every pyramid scheme. Yet the insidious growth of the virus keeps doubling in size, over and over again - in shorter and shorter periods of time - until it hits unsustainable levels. And it collapses the system."
Martenson points to the U.S. total credit market debt as an example of this unnerving pattern.
"For 30 years - from the 1940s through the 1970s - our total credit market debt was moderate and entirely reasonable," he says. "But then in seven years, from 1970 to 1977, it quickly doubled. And then it doubled again in seven more years. Then five years to double a third time. And then it doubled two more times after that.
"Where we were sitting at a total credit market debt that was 158% larger than our GDP in the early 1940s... By 2011 that figure was 357%."
Dr. Moors warns this type of unsustainable road to collapse can be seen today in our energy, food and water production. All are tightly connected and contributing to the economic disaster that lies directly ahead.
Editor's note: Germany's military held a secret investigation into this unsustainable pattern and concluded it could lead to "political instability and extremism." Details here
According to polls, the average American is sensing danger. A recent survey found that 61% of Americans believe a catastrophe is looming - yet only 15% feel prepared for such a deeply troubling event.
Fitz-Gerald says people should take steps to protect themselves from what is happening. "The amount of risky financial derivatives floating around the globe is as much as 20 times size of the entire GDP of the world," he says. "It's unsustainable and impossible to unwind in any kind of orderly way."
Moreover, he adds: "People can also forget that the FDIC can only cover a fraction of US bank deposits. It's a false sense of security. Just like state pensions, which could be suspended at any time. A collapse could wipe out these programs. Entitlements like Social Security and Medicare are already bankrupt and simply being propped up."
We can see the strain on society already.
In two years, Congress won't have any money for transportation, reports the Washington Post. Cities like Trenton, NJ have layed off one-third of their police force due to budget cuts. And other cities like Colorado Springs, CO removed one-third of streetlights, trashcans, and bus routes, reports CNN.
Fitz-Gerald also warns of a period of devastating inflation. A recent survey, reports USA Today, notes that in the coming years it could take $150,000 a year in household income for a family to afford basic living expenses - and maybe go out to a movie.
Right now, in fact, "52% of Americans feel they barely have enough to afford the basics."
"If our research is right," says Fitz-Gerald, "Americans will have to make some tough choices on how they'll go about surviving when basic necessities become nearly unaffordable and the economy becomes dangerously unstable."
"People need to begin to make preparations with their investments, retirement savings, and personal finances before it's too late," says Fitz-Gerald.
Richard Duncan, formerly of the World Bank and chief economist at Blackhorse Asset Mgmt., says America's $16 trillion federal debt has escalated into a "death spiral, "as he told CNBC.
And it could result in a depression so severe that he doesn't "think our civilization could survive it."
And Duncan is not alone in warning that the U.S. economy may go into a "death spiral."
Since the recession, noted economists including Laurence Kotlikoff, a former member of President Reagan's Council of Economic Advisers, have come to similar conclusions.
Kotlikoff estimates the true fiscal gap is $211 trillion when unfunded entitlements like Social Security and Medicare are included.
However, while the debt crisis numbers are well known to most Americans, the economy hasn't suffered a major correction for almost 4 years.
So the questions remain: Is the threat of collapse for real? And if so, when?
A team of scientists, economists, and geopolitical analysts believes they have proof that the threat is indeed real - and the danger imminent.
One member of this team, Chris Martenson, a pathologist and former VP of a Fortune 300 company, explains their findings:
"We found an identical pattern in our debt, total credit market, and money supply that guaranteesthey're going to fail. This pattern is nearly the same as in any pyramid scheme, one that escalates exponentially fast before it collapses. Governments around the globe are chiefly responsible.
Click here to see how banks are escalating the collapse...According to Martenson: "These systems could all implode at the same time. Food, water, energy, money. Everything."
Another member of this team, Keith Fitz-Gerald, the president of The Fitz-Gerald Group, went on to explain their discoveries.
"What this pattern represents is a dangerous countdown clock that's quickly approaching zero. And when it does, the resulting chaos is going to crush Americans," Fitz-Gerald says.
Dr. Kent Moors, an adviser to 16 world governments on energy issues as well as a member of two U.S. State Department task forces on energy also voiced concerns over what he and his colleagues uncovered.
"Most frightening of all is how this exact same pattern keeps appearing in virtually every system criticalto our society and way of life," Dr. Moors stated.
The work of this team garnered such attention, they were brought in front of the United Nations, UK Parliament, and numerous Fortune 500 companies to share much of their findings. Click on the short video above to see a sample."It's a pattern that's hard to see unless you understand the way a catastrophe like this gains traction," Dr. Moors says. "At first, it's almost impossible to perceive. Everything looks fine, just like in every pyramid scheme. Yet the insidious growth of the virus keeps doubling in size, over and over again - in shorter and shorter periods of time - until it hits unsustainable levels. And it collapses the system."
Martenson points to the U.S. total credit market debt as an example of this unnerving pattern.
"For 30 years - from the 1940s through the 1970s - our total credit market debt was moderate and entirely reasonable," he says. "But then in seven years, from 1970 to 1977, it quickly doubled. And then it doubled again in seven more years. Then five years to double a third time. And then it doubled two more times after that.
"Where we were sitting at a total credit market debt that was 158% larger than our GDP in the early 1940s... By 2011 that figure was 357%."
Dr. Moors warns this type of unsustainable road to collapse can be seen today in our energy, food and water production. All are tightly connected and contributing to the economic disaster that lies directly ahead.
Editor's note: Germany's military held a secret investigation into this unsustainable pattern and concluded it could lead to "political instability and extremism." Details here
According to polls, the average American is sensing danger. A recent survey found that 61% of Americans believe a catastrophe is looming - yet only 15% feel prepared for such a deeply troubling event.
Fitz-Gerald says people should take steps to protect themselves from what is happening. "The amount of risky financial derivatives floating around the globe is as much as 20 times size of the entire GDP of the world," he says. "It's unsustainable and impossible to unwind in any kind of orderly way."
Moreover, he adds: "People can also forget that the FDIC can only cover a fraction of US bank deposits. It's a false sense of security. Just like state pensions, which could be suspended at any time. A collapse could wipe out these programs. Entitlements like Social Security and Medicare are already bankrupt and simply being propped up."
We can see the strain on society already.
In two years, Congress won't have any money for transportation, reports the Washington Post. Cities like Trenton, NJ have layed off one-third of their police force due to budget cuts. And other cities like Colorado Springs, CO removed one-third of streetlights, trashcans, and bus routes, reports CNN.
Fitz-Gerald also warns of a period of devastating inflation. A recent survey, reports USA Today, notes that in the coming years it could take $150,000 a year in household income for a family to afford basic living expenses - and maybe go out to a movie.
Right now, in fact, "52% of Americans feel they barely have enough to afford the basics."
"If our research is right," says Fitz-Gerald, "Americans will have to make some tough choices on how they'll go about surviving when basic necessities become nearly unaffordable and the economy becomes dangerously unstable."
"People need to begin to make preparations with their investments, retirement savings, and personal finances before it's too late," says Fitz-Gerald.
6 comments:
I think what Mr. Duncan meant to say, was, "Civilization will, by and large, be fine, but the people like me who thought we had this world under our control are in for a rude awakening when we find ourselves getting strung up on lamp posts in the streets..."
I beg to differ with Weiss's opinions. The $16 trillion debt is NOT AMERICA'S DEBT but the debt of the world banking cabal created by all manner of theft, fraud, manipulation and lies purpetrated upon the American people. The economy (of the entire world) may well go in to a "death spiral" and, in fact, appears to be well on its way, the exact intentions of those that make their life calling to run/ruin the world at the expense of the people. There needs to be clarification of Weiss's statement: "unfunded entitlements like Social Security and Medicare are included". Sir, funds for Medicare and Social Security paid to all Americans are funded by UNLAWFUL EXTRACTIONS from the pay of the American people. Americans are receiving what lawfully belongs to them and only a very small part at that. The only 'unfunded entitlements' are those being freely and excessively provided to both the Americans who are bilking the systems for their personal gain and the illegals in this nation, those who never worked one hour - or few - to receive the exorbitant amounts of FREE welfare benefits at the expense of us 'legal' Americans who have worked hard all our lives. Their exorbitant FREE welfare entitlements are provided at our expense and, as a result, we are being set up to not receive our funds returned to us at all. We are being informed that the entire Social Security and Welfare systems may be shut down entirely. When the IRS and Social Security systems were implemented, the people were told it was temporary and would not continue. Of course, these were lies as evidenced today by the continued unlawful extortion payments being extracted from our pay. These corporation presidents, including the private rogue corporation known as THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, continually lie to the people who do not, for the most part, do their due diligence to learn the truth and thus continue to be persuaded that all of the problems of this nation are their problems and not those of the ones who are deliberately creating them for their own financial and political gain. If Congress does not have funds to take care of the nation's affairs, it is because they do NOT work for you and me. They work for the private corporation, and their benefits far exceed what you and I are allowed to have or do. Check out their private secure offshore bank accounts in foreign nations - something you and I are NOT allowed to have - and you will find all the 'stimulus funds,' bribe monies and other thefts they have committed, distributing among themselves and removing huge sums from our nation to foreign accounts. Americans, WHEN ARE YOU GOING TO WAKE UP AND SMELL THE STENCH AND GET RID OF THESE TREASONOUS 'GOVERNMENT' DEPARTMENTS and their EMPLOYEES? Americans, you are running out of time.
We need the system to crash so the new system can emerge.the one backed by precise metals
No one has my permission to make me suffer or deal with death against my will.
If their currency is useless, then get rid of it and get another one.
I don't care how they do it, I better have a quality of life through out the entire process, and I better not experience anything I don't want to at the hand or will of another.
That's the Creator in me talking now.
As it is written, so shall it be done.
I'm all for a total crash of the fiat if it will take the money and control out of the hands of the elite! Most of us have little while they have a monopoly in $$ .. I would love to see them lose all of it then let's see how they rule! Their money is the only thing buying them the power they have. Let's see who will be loyal to them when they can no longer buy support. And u know what? If\when that happens watch them starve because they have no skills to survive on their own. They may know how to fish a lil bit but with what they have allowed to happen with our oceans and the environment they may have to eat those mutated fish and crabs stuffed full of toxins. Wonder how long they will last on that? When they become sick who will care to care for them without their money? I sure hope their family members have skills to deal with that too. Oh well this is the life they created for their future! I guess they will have to figure it out on their own like so many of us have had to do our entire lives! :-)
Problems with money or derivatives are man-made and they can be solved.
Real problems, like climate change, exploding population, food shortages, peak energy,
will make all other market failures tame by comparison.
Here is the forecast: http://www.seconnecticut.com/forecast.htm
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