Saturday, October 31, 2015

Earthquake - Swarms now a new factor to consider


10/31/2015 — Earthquake Forecast Areas Struck vs. Areas Missed — Each location hit, Swarms now a new factor to consider

by Michael Janitch

I feel a real calling to get back into things... it's been a long month and a half of work getting the whole house rehab done :)
Lucky now that I'm 95% (or more) complete with the project, I can begin to put a greater focus into my online work, and geophysics research.
Moving on to issues that matter to the entire population .....
This  past week SEVERAL of the areas named in the forecast for large earthquakes to strike were hit by large earthquakes.
After more than 3 weeks of relative silence, with no earthquakes reaching above even M6.0  -- new large earthquakes struck starting the day AFTER the forecast was issued measuring in the M7.2 to M7.5 range.
past 7 days of earthquakes oct 31 2015

October 31, 2015 -- Past 7 days of M4.0+ earthquakes internationally, and M2.5+ events in the US / Territories shows ALL the areas forecast to be hit by noteworthy activity were indeed hit, some were hit by swarms as opposed to single large events -- the swarms being rather large, not just a few earthquakes, but hundreds in each location where you see clusters on this graphic
See the Earthquake Forecast video from October 20th, here:


Areas named to be hit vs. the areas actually hit:

Central America -- was expecting a larger than M6.0 to strike near Panama into Colombia , instead a flurry of M5.0's struck across Central America from El Salvador into Colombia.
Was expecting a M5.0 to strike NW California from the Gorda Escarpment reaching inland towards San Francisco, instead a swarm of hundreds of earthquakes struck NW California inland near San Francisco.
Was expecting a M6.0 to strike Northeast Japan, instead a M5.4 struck Northeast Japan.
Was expecting a M5.0 to M6.0 to strike Greece, instead a swarm of M4.0 to M4.7 struck Greece.
Was expecting a M6.5 to M7.0 to strike Solomon Sea , and just as expected a M7.2 struck the Eastern Solomon Sea / Vanuatu
Was expecting a M6.5 to strike the Mideast near West India / Hindu Kush region.. and just as expected a large earthquake struck, a full magnitude ABOVE the expected movement -- a M7.5 struck the Mideast near Afghanistan Kush Region
Was expecting a M4.5 to M5.0 to strike Vancouver Island, and just as expected, after weeks of relative silence , a M4.8 struck Vancouver Island.
Was expecting a renewed flurry of M3.0 to M4.0 events to strike the dormant volcanoes along the West Coast / Nevada / Eastern California / Oregon / Washington State / Idaho -- and just as expected a flurry of M3.0 to M4.0 struck ALL of those areas directly at dormant volcanoes (too many to mention in this post)..... including Mono Lake Caldera CA/ NV, Mount Saint Helens WA, Davis Volcanic Complex OR, Blowout Mountain / Bitner Butte NV, Black Rock Desert NV, Soda Lakes NV, Clear Lake Volcano CA, and Salton Sea Volcanic Buttes CA.
Was expecting renewed activity to strike Texas and Oklahoma at the fracking operations, and just as expected a new swarm of events struck Oklahoma and Texas.
Was expecting renewed craton edge movement, and UNEXPECTEDLY we now have reports of a large fissure opening in the ground East of Yellowstone (in the Bighorn Mountains).
Was expecting the pressure to transfer Eastward along the edge of the craton ( to the East coast of the USA ), and cause a few M2.5 to M3.0 events in Southeast Quebec and New England..... just as expected we saw multiple events strike in the M2.5 to M3.1 range in Southeast Quebec, and New York / Pennsylvania
Was expecting M3.0 to M4.0 activity to strike Europe in South France / North Italy, and just as expected a swarm of M3.0 to M4.0 events struck North Spain / Southwest France / North Italy.
Was expecting to see a swarm of events strike EAST India near Myanmar / China border region in the M4.0 to M5.0 range, and just as expected we saw that a swarm of M4.0 to M5.0 earthquakes struck at the East India / Myanmar border.
Overall, like I said at the start of this post, several of the areas were hit spot on, and a few areas did not move as large as expected (yet).
I'll have a new update out this weekend covering the next week of projected activity.
ALL of the areas were hit, some by swarms instead of large single release events. I will start adding in swarm possibility to my forecasts.
Michael Janitch | October 31, 2015 at 12:41 am |

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