"All
Have Something To Gain & Something To Lose"
06/21/2014
Post From Peoples Dinar By Pose
A Follow Up To Countrygal’s Commentary
There are calls from within Iraq and around the world for Maliki to step down, but it isn't that easy. Hakim and Sadr were the leaders in removing Maliki, and still believe Maliki is the cause for the ISIL and Sunni uprising. But those efforts will need to remain on hold as the Shia are more concerned with countering the Sunni jihadists threat.
Keep in mind that Iran supported Assad despite him killing over 150,000 people, so it is unlikely they want to replace Maliki now because it is unclear if a Shia replacement would be able to make any difference in the Sunni position.
Because of the polarizing sectarian situation, the Shia don’t want to give the Sunni any physical or psychological advantage, therefore don’t want the Sunni terrorists ISIL to think they are responsible for getting Maliki out of office.
~~~
A Follow Up To Countrygal’s Commentary
There are calls from within Iraq and around the world for Maliki to step down, but it isn't that easy. Hakim and Sadr were the leaders in removing Maliki, and still believe Maliki is the cause for the ISIL and Sunni uprising. But those efforts will need to remain on hold as the Shia are more concerned with countering the Sunni jihadists threat.
Keep in mind that Iran supported Assad despite him killing over 150,000 people, so it is unlikely they want to replace Maliki now because it is unclear if a Shia replacement would be able to make any difference in the Sunni position.
Because of the polarizing sectarian situation, the Shia don’t want to give the Sunni any physical or psychological advantage, therefore don’t want the Sunni terrorists ISIL to think they are responsible for getting Maliki out of office.
~~~
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Everyone knows Maliki created this mess by marginalizing
the sects, but removing him now may make the mess even worse.
The strategizing by Iran, U.S., Turkey, and Saudi’s, all with differing interests, then throw in Russia, because of the situation in Syria, muddies the waters like a flooding Mississippi. |
*Saudi met with Russia today to discuss Syria and Iraq;
*Iran and U.S. have been talking but neither claim to want to be involved but both have some kind of troops or intelligence in Iraq;
*Turkey has hostages in play plus the fear of Sunni uprising in Turkey;
*Saudi backs the Sunni;
*Iran backs Shia;
*US is riding the fence with Kurds, Sunni and Shia; and
* Iran and Russia are fearful Assad could fall in Syria; they all have something to gain and something to lose.
*With Putin talking with Saudi and looking for a settlement in Syria we could actually see the Syrian situation coming to a close.
CGal and I further discussed that the Kurds are out to fully exploit the situation so they can negotiate an abnormally greater position in the government. They have gained the Article 140 area, now have a large section of Nineveh, which is also the same Syrian border of the Syrian Kurds, and have Mosul nearly surrounded.
The Kurds are already asking for 25% in lieu of 17% for the region because they have more area and their population increase. Like CGal stated, isn’t it curious that the Peshmerga went into Nineveh … perhaps Ethel Najafi and Barzani had an agreement. The question then begs to be asked, if the Kurds regain what is rightfully theirs from Nineveh, what does Ethel Najafi and Nineveh get in return?
It may seem like I got a little off track on Maliki, but this is the dilemma of replacing Maliki now. What Shia could possibly step in and solve the problem besides maybe Hakim or Mahdi? And which rising star would want to step into this mess?
Not one of the sects would want to sacrifice a rising star and have him fail in a sure-to-fail situation … sure to fail making the U.S., Iran, Turkey, or Saudi Arabia happy at any level.
This is where the Chalabi option falls apart. Chalabi has a shady past in the banking business in Jordan, and an issue with the truth with the US. Jordan has offered to pardon Chalabi to maintain a good relationship with Iraq, but give Chalabi power, it may also put a dagger in the heart of Jordan and create further sectarian separatism.
I don’t think the Sunni’s, Jordan, Turkey, Saudi, U.S., nor Iran could trust him to act in allegiance with any one of them.
*So now we are seeing Iran and US backing off a military option;
*we have 150 Saudi intelligence officers entering Mosul through Syria;
*militants stating they will not target Kurdish controlled areas;
*Iran and U.S. have been talking but neither claim to want to be involved but both have some kind of troops or intelligence in Iraq;
*Turkey has hostages in play plus the fear of Sunni uprising in Turkey;
*Saudi backs the Sunni;
*Iran backs Shia;
*US is riding the fence with Kurds, Sunni and Shia; and
* Iran and Russia are fearful Assad could fall in Syria; they all have something to gain and something to lose.
*With Putin talking with Saudi and looking for a settlement in Syria we could actually see the Syrian situation coming to a close.
CGal and I further discussed that the Kurds are out to fully exploit the situation so they can negotiate an abnormally greater position in the government. They have gained the Article 140 area, now have a large section of Nineveh, which is also the same Syrian border of the Syrian Kurds, and have Mosul nearly surrounded.
The Kurds are already asking for 25% in lieu of 17% for the region because they have more area and their population increase. Like CGal stated, isn’t it curious that the Peshmerga went into Nineveh … perhaps Ethel Najafi and Barzani had an agreement. The question then begs to be asked, if the Kurds regain what is rightfully theirs from Nineveh, what does Ethel Najafi and Nineveh get in return?
It may seem like I got a little off track on Maliki, but this is the dilemma of replacing Maliki now. What Shia could possibly step in and solve the problem besides maybe Hakim or Mahdi? And which rising star would want to step into this mess?
Not one of the sects would want to sacrifice a rising star and have him fail in a sure-to-fail situation … sure to fail making the U.S., Iran, Turkey, or Saudi Arabia happy at any level.
This is where the Chalabi option falls apart. Chalabi has a shady past in the banking business in Jordan, and an issue with the truth with the US. Jordan has offered to pardon Chalabi to maintain a good relationship with Iraq, but give Chalabi power, it may also put a dagger in the heart of Jordan and create further sectarian separatism.
I don’t think the Sunni’s, Jordan, Turkey, Saudi, U.S., nor Iran could trust him to act in allegiance with any one of them.
*So now we are seeing Iran and US backing off a military option;
*we have 150 Saudi intelligence officers entering Mosul through Syria;
*militants stating they will not target Kurdish controlled areas;
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*Saudi and Russia meeting; and
*US intelligence officers helping in Iraq, and all helping to make it appear that Iraq is solving their own problem. A Shia puppet will not temper the situation in Iraq. Iraq needs a leader that can transcend all sects, a peacemaker. Countrygal’s Commentary LINK |
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